TheImplication wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 8:02 am UK with a 20% contraction in economy. Holy crap, what’s going on there?

Mismanagement of two issues, Corona and Brexit.

Brexit yet to come.

I'm surprised it's only 20%. The next quarter will be interesting as having put the economy in a coma, they can't revive it. People don't want to be cramped together.

They have a 'eat out to help out' (*1) scheme for restaurants; 50% of your food bill (no booze) from Monday to Wednesday. People are flocking in on those days instead of going in on Thursday to Saturday, the normally busy times. They have just shifted the dates of the sales and sent half the bill to the taxpayer. Brilliant.

Pubs are four times as expensive as people were paying for 3 months while being at home or in the parks and greens around the country. Plus all the queueing and one way traffic and "sit there - don't sit there" crap. While the sun is out the pubs might be getting away with it. Wait a few months and see what happens when the outdoor weather ends.

London is still a ghost town with less than 30% of workers returning and up to a third planning not to return by Christmas. All those restaurants and coffee shops with eye watering rents are in big trouble. London Underground are operating at 25% capacity as of 3rd August (*2)

This thing is far from over and the worst is still to come when the furlough scheme ends and reality bites (and it will because it is just too expensive). People can see spikes all over Europe and know this virus has not gone away.

The problem with the British economy is the hospitality sector is huge, employs millions of workers and is predicated on stuffing as many people as possible into as small a space as possible for as long as possible and charging them a fortune for the privilege. That's looking like a very bad business model right now.



*1 https://inews.co.uk/category/opinion
*2 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ffice.html

Cowshed Cowboy wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:35 am How can pubs be four times as expensive, that means you would be paying something like £16-£20 for a pint of Guinness for example. That surely can't be the case.

£1 a pint in a can, £4+ a pint in the pub.
£5 bottle of wine, £5 a glass in a pub.

£5 would get you a nice buzz (it got me four cans of Stella and a big pack of salt and vinegar Chipsticks) It buys you one pint in the pub. No crisps though.

Doc67 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 13, 2020 9:28 am I'm surprised it's only 20%. The next quarter will be interesting as having put the economy in a coma, they can't revive it. People don't want to be cramped together.

Most other European countries dropped about 3% per month, so the UK is actually doing particularly bad.

But you're right, the worst is yet to come. There's massive hidden unemployment, in all countries with a government support scheme, and it's unsustainable. They hoped a quick lock down with short time support followed by a strong recovery would save the day. They were wrong. We're heading for a 20-30% drop in 2020 if we continue like this.

But don't forget, the economic effects of Corona are self inflicted. The pandemic isn't (well, maybe it is, but that's another matter), but the way we handle it and the consequences of that way surely are.