Another thing to note regarding Russia, is after this latest fiasco a LOT of those European countries are making moves to get their oil/gas from elsewhere, at least as backup plans. And with the price of oil starting to drop hard as a result of fracking increasing supply (and OPEC reacting to that by trying to price so low that it runs the fracking operations out of business), their primary resource is being heavily devalued. And if they don't price match it will just make the move to the other suppliers that much more viable.

OrangeDragon wrote:Another thing to note regarding Russia, is after this latest fiasco a LOT of those European countries are making moves to get their oil/gas from elsewhere, at least as backup plans. And with the price of oil starting to drop hard as a result of fracking increasing supply (and OPEC reacting to that by trying to price so low that it runs the fracking operations out of business), their primary resource is being heavily devalued. And if they don't price match it will just make the move to the other suppliers that much more viable.

Very good point. Actions have consequences. I was actually thinking about mentioning this but forgot. Great minds think alike as they say? Bringing online additional sources require decades long term commitments from exploration to extraction and processing. Romania, Lithuania and Poland will likely be the first, not only for cheaper energy but also from freedom from Russia. The track Putin is taking Russia is forcing his country backwards and will be hard to extract itself from. Difficult to understand what is in his mind causing him to undertake these misadventures, but it is much less difficult to foresee the disastrous consequences for Russia long term.

But he is a master of the game so I would not expect any changes while he is in power, which could indeed be for a long time.

Part of it was he couldn't/can't afford to lose Ukraine. His pipelines to Europe run through there and if he were to have them cut off/hijacked/etc it would cripple his country.

It's all he's thinking about (as well as the USSR era "we are all one country, Russia" mentality) it seems, ignoring how he's crippling his country trying to fight it.

The subject is of interest to me, however, it is not something that I've spent time seriously studying so I can't contribute in that regard. I did just read the post below from an Australian website and thought I'd paste it here as it seems relevant:

Look. Bottom line (imho of course). Physical is for buying and holding until its value is recalibrated.
The sanctions on, and oil war against Russia are certain to be self-defeating. Russia and China are on a path to dealing in gold and oil. They are going to use it in place of USD. There's nothing Russia needs that it can't buy from China. They are both getting out of USD as fast as they can, and there's nothing Uncle Sam can do about it, save going to war. But MAD guarantees that is not an option.
Russia and China, working together, have the US checkmated wrt gold. Both are accumulating, but also trading commodities using Yuan and gold for payment. Eventually the devaluation of the Rouble will be of no consequence, because it will be totally divorced from the USD. Energy hungry China will become Russia's main energy market, and China will pay in Yuan or gold. If the U.S. continues to depress the GP, China and Russia get cheap gold. If the USA lets gold find its true price, China and Russia win again. Divided, they couldn't pull this off, but together it's Checkmate.

Original here:

http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/14396651/single

I think they are underestimating China. The Chinese are in this for China, they couldn't care less about Russia. From what I understand they have struck some pretty sweet deals for themselves with Russia, because Russia is desperate and they are not. China's economy is inextricably intertwined with the world economy and they benefit from that immeasurably. They will not jeopardize that just to help Russia. China gets much more from the rest of the world than it does from Russia. In addition barter agreements will only get you so far. Sure they can barter one commodity for another, but it is not easy and really limits the type of transactions. In addition if gold is used as a medium of exchange, you have to remember the gold market is very thin compared to the foreign exchange markets. In spite of what you might hear from those that wish gold would replace the dollar, it is simply not going to happen for the foreseeable future.

^--- that. This idea that China is getting out of the USD is ridiculous. It's spouted by people who don't understand how China's economy works at all.

They count on the US for a LOT of trade, more than Russia by a factor of 10. In both directions. To do that trade, they are forced to use USD... they're not going to cut off one of the largest portions of their trade that has proven to be stable even in some of its worst economic moments just to preserve one that's a 10th of the size and a sinking ship as well.

US plays Monopoly, Russia plays chess

The decline of the US economy and dollar will happen/accelerate when a barrel of oil is no longer sold/tied to/in US dollars. Yes, the US has found new cheap oil reserves through the ecological disaster called fracking, but America's thirst for oil is only surpassed by China's short sighted ecological-industrial disasters. In the end, our children will have to clean up our mess both economically and ecologically. Who would have though water (bottled drinking water) would cost more per volume then refined fuels like gasoline/diesel?

Problem is that Putin is playing chess at a backgammon competition, and can't figure out why everyone is laughing at him.

He will win. slow and steady. This guy stands for everything I wish our president stood for Borders Language and Culture. All 3 being trampled on by the doucher.

His moves are brilliant and dishing back what the UN serves. I LOVE IT! The UN reached to far on Ukraine. Syria was one thing and Putin sat back. Now your on his fence? Fuck that. Now you get the horns. And the Russian Military would crush any adversary in the E.U. The only major opponent would be England but with the pussification of every western nation...idk if I could put up a fight.