What are the prospects for the Thai economy? The short answer is worse -- and likely to get much worse.

Before we gaze into the future, let's look at the past. I never start with the government's GDP figures to analyse the economy as I find official figures to be inconsistent with other sectors. I was taught at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that GDP figures, which are technically called the "real sector", must be consistent with other economic sectors such as the monetary sector, the fiscal sector and the external sector.

Therefore, I devised a more accurate measurement of the economy which I term "adjusted GDP". And, on an adjusted GDP basis, GDP growth for the first quarter of this year is 0.3%, not 2.8% as compiled by the National Economic and Social Development Council (NESDC), which indicates that the Thai economy is far from being okay.

On the production side, Thailand has lost about 20% of labour productivity over the past five years. The productivity loss is largely the result of a lack of investments to upgrade factories. Average capital investment growth stands at only 2.7% per year while minimum investment growth of 5% is required to maintain productivity. This severe loss of competitiveness is the true cause of the decline in Thai exports, not the slowdown in the global economy.

The slowdown in global economic growth from 3.9% in 2018 to 3.2% in 2019 (July 2019 IMF projection) did not cause the 4.9% contraction in Thai exports in the first quarter. According to an expert, the lack of private investment, particularly from Japan, is a direct result of Thailand not joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Without clear direction in international trade, Japanese manufacturers decided to drop Thailand from their global supply chain. The strong currency only makes a bad situation worse.

Jamie_Lambo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:04 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.

as much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weaker

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:20 pm

Jamie_Lambo wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 5:04 pm

Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Sat Aug 03, 2019 4:18 pm Is it wrong of me to want the Thai economy and baht to tank so I can relive my yesteryear cheap charlie? The cheap charlie I grew to know and love.

as much as i love Thailand, i do prefer it when the baht was weaker

it was 22 to the $$ when i first visited, getting 30.8 is fantastic
but not as good as 54 in the late 90's LOL

Do feel sad for the brits retired here, watching their money drop daily