(MENAFN - Gulf Times) The expected end-2015 launch of the Asean Economic Community (AEC), an envisaged free trade area of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), where free movement of skilled labour will be partially allowed, stands in stark contrast to the current migrant crisis in the region which contradicts the idea of a united political and economic bloc.

In fact, there seems to be a clear distinction between the good (skilled workers), the bad (semi-to unskilled migrant workers) and the ugly (boat people).

Indeed, it is a wrong perception that labour movement in Asean will be "free" at all in the foreseeable future, it will rather be "managed." The bloc is well aware that an Asean overall workforce of more than 300mn people will have strong implications in terms of labour migration and human resource development. Therefore, and unlike the model of the European Union, which is based on the free movement of people and labour regardless of educational or professional backgrounds, labour movement within Asean will be, at least for now, confined to skilled workers and to eight professions only, which are doctors, dentists, nurses, engineers, architects, accountants, surveyors and tourism industry professionals. The Asean Secretariat calls this "managed flow of labour".

Looking at the latest available statistics on migration corridors in Asean (see table), at present, labour migration predominantly takes places from the poorer to the wealthier countries in the bloc. Flows of skilled labour remain small.

The majority of emigrants have only primary education, and in less developed countries such as Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, unskilled migration is significantly higher than skilled migration. Adding to this, there is still no agreed-on system of mutual recognition and certification of qualifications region-wide for migrants with better skills.

"The majority of migrants are low-skilled, and many are irregular," says Adam Heal, Associate Economic Affairs Officer at Bangkok-based UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), adding that "large income disparities among geographically-close Asean members, differential rates of population growth and ageing and the absence of regional redistributive mechanisms create large labour deficits and surpluses. These are a powerful spur to migration with labour flowing mainly from the poorer countries to the richer."

Former Asean secretary-general Surin Pitsuwan, one of the architects of
the AEC, is of the opinion that free labour movement should "not be rushed" but made "step by step" because otherwise countries with stronger economies such as Thailand or Malaysia, let alone Singapore, would be "engulfed." It, according to Pitsuwan, is not the idea of the AEC that seeks to encourage Asean labour to move around and help develop weaker economies.

Foreign investors, including those from the Middle East, will, in any case, have to brace for an economic transformation in Asean. While the goal of Asean's economic integration is to become a single production base where goods can be manufactured and distributed to anywhere within the region, there will be a natural selection process for the bloc's industrial sectors.

It is expected that the electronics industry will go to Malaysia; banking, finance and logistics to Singapore; automotive and food processing to Thailand; extracting natural resources to Indonesia; business services and IT outsourcing to the Philippines; and consumer goods manufacturing to Vietnam.

Myanmar, Laos and Cambodia will largely remain the source of unskilled or semi-skilled labour until their economic growth allows for more comprehensive education of their people and creation of more quality jobs within their boundaries.