armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 8:11 pm

Albror wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 6:02 pm

Jcml19 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 13, 2024 9:54 pm no idea whats the point with a new aport ... they cant get enough flights coming to this one so a tad waste of money...

To be prepared for future growth perhaps as with all city planning where you plan decades ahead and not just for today?

It takes time to build a airport from the proposal to a airplane landing so its not a good strategy to do it first when the demand is already there, then its to late.

However im not sure how many % extra capacity the new airport has compared to current demand. You obviously have the answer if you dont mind letting me know?

It is surprisingly hard to obtain the total pax arrival numbers for PNH. The international visitor arrival numbers are more available but not the total arrival numbers.Several sources state the number was 6 million in 2019 (no more precise figure seems to be available) and in 2023 it was 1,365,735.

The capacity is currently stated as 5 million.

It is normal for airports to anticipate capacity limitations by expanding the buildings and indeed PNH has done this several times recently. Having used the airport many times in 2019, I do not recall problems arising from it being overused. So I don’t know how accurate the 5 million figure is.

In terms of development economics, developing countries are in a good position when they spend (whether by borrowing or not) on infrastructure that achieves productivity gains. This is because the cost of the project can be more than balanced by the gains. The problem comes when you spend (especially borrowed money) on non- or low productivity gain projects. This can cause a drag on economic growth and lead to debt problems.

Cambodia has improved its roads enormously recently and this has led to spectacular productivity gains, primarily by reducing the cost of getting materials to factories and getting finished goods to ports. And there is room for more improvement with the roads.

As the roads (and probably railways) improve significantly, this will in itself have a negative impact on passenger traffic through airports. All domestic and some important international air destinations are short enough to be done by road or rail. And international climate change pressure will further cause switching to surface transport.

Of the 53 arrivals at PNH yesterday, 14 were from BKK, 5 from SGN, and 2 were domestic. Even if these routes were reduced, there is still plenty of demand for destinations that are too far to be done on the surface, Malaysia, Singapore, N. Vietnam, Laos, China, Korea, Philippines. But there is probably no need for further runway expansion. Airports can handle 400 arrivals per day with a single runway so we are a long way from needing a second runway at PNH. Only 3 wide-bodied planes arrived yesterday - a Qatar 777, and A330s operated by Korea and EVA. The latest generation of narrow-bodied planes can reach destinations such as the Middle East and Australia. The Airbus 321XLR will have a range of 4,500 nautical miles, tantalisingly not yet enough to fly to Western Europe but not far off, so it probably will happen soon. Increasingly, the reason for deploying wide-bodied aircraft is due to pax capacity being required, not for the range. That is the case with the Korean and EVA flights into PNH at present. The only passenger aircraft that PNH possibly could not currently handle is the A380, even this is just within the runway length (2900/3000m) but you wouldn't want to try it after a rainstorm.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:42 pm

IraHayes wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 8:28 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 8:21 pm Eventually the new airport should be capable of handling 50 million passengers per year which is about the number San Francisco processed in 2023.

That's some allowance for future growth right there. But was it the reason the airport was moved to the new site that is outside the city?

Back in the days, pre COVID, the numbers increased every year, so there seemed to be a solid case for a larger airport. Pochentong is surrounded in every direction, and can't expand anymore, so a new area outside the city made sense back then. A bit of a Suvarnabhumi case. Major difference... Suvarnabhumi bordered the (toll) highway from Chonburi to Bangkok providing good road access with a large capacity. How those 13 million passengers are going to travel to and from the new airport every year using the existing infrastructure in Phnom Penh is a big mystery (and worry) to me.

Time will tell if the growth of the past will continue. I doubt it. The growing middle class will support it, but as someone said before, once there's a decent highway connecting Bangkok and Phnom Penh that market will largely evaporate for point to point travel. If Siem Reap airport is doing what it's supposed to, grow large, it will eat a large part of the market as well I guess. Domestic flights are a joke. There's no functioning domestic airports apart from Siem Reap and Sihanoukville. Both within the range of bus / taxi which will be as fast, if not faster.
If healthcare in Cambodia improves travel to Bangkok will also decline. If Big C opens large stores around the country... Same story...

If you analyse the traffic to and from Phnom Penh airport it's not very diverse. That would worry me if I were an investor.

I am glad it's not my money in there. Spending an initial 1,500 million on an airport is easy, but earning it back, with a serious profit, is a challenge I think.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:17 pm
I don't think business lounges are going to make the day. How many out of the supposedly 50 flights a day do actually have a business class in the plane?

Most airlines going to and from Phnom Penh are low cost / full coach.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 10:12 pm

rogerrabbit wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:56 pm
There's a plan for a toll road (above of the 60m boulevard) and also aa plan for a train/tram. I'm fairly sure both will be completed before the new airport hits 10 million annual passenger mark.

That's great, but the airport is supposed to open in a year. And it's a 35 km trip into town. To Pochentong is just 12 km and that's a horrendous experience already.

rogerrabbit wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:56 pm Are you suggesting that locals lack the same desire to travel as westerners do? Or why would medical tourism have any impact on future travel trends? Though I'm pretty sure medical travel constitutes only a small portion of overall travel.

Locals don't lack the the desire, but many lack the funds, to travel as Westerners do. I don't think medical travel to Bangkok is that large, I just think in the future reasons to fly to Bangkok point to point will evaporate for a plethora of reasons.

rogerrabbit wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:56 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Wed Apr 17, 2024 9:17 pm
I don't think business lounges are going to make the day. How many out of the supposedly 50 flights a day do actually have a business class in the plane?

Most airlines going to and from Phnom Penh are low cost / full coach.

The majority of visitors to airport lounges worldwide aren't business class travelers; rather, they gain access through credit card perks or elite status with airlines. Surprisingly, many Cambodians also purchase access at the Phnom Penh airport.

I spent time in the lounge @ Phnom Penh last January. It's large (it take up almost 10% of the commercial space, although it's on the second floor - takes an effort to access), there were maybe 20 people, and it's the worst lounge I ever visited. And the price to spend your time there is about 80% higher than BKK airport, so if I had to choose .. Just saying. I simply can not imagine that lounge is profitable. People might want to spend their points and rewards elsewhere.

Locals don't lack the the desire, but many lack the funds, to travel as Westerners do. I don't think medical travel to Bangkok is that large, I just think in the future reasons to fly to Bangkok point to point will evaporate for a plethora of reasons.

That's great, but the airport is supposed to open in a year. And it's a 35 km trip into town. To Pochentong is just 12 km and that's a horrendous experience already.