William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
- newkidontheblock
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
Seriously?pootylicious wrote:Taiwanese people don't want to defend their own sovereignty, why should American boys and girls be sent to die for the Taiwanese? These people don't even care about freedom and liberty. They only care about money. They're Chinese. Leave them be with the other Chinese.
This wealthy, high IQ island, maintains for the national defense:
no nukes
a fake Marine Corps
four subs, half of WW2 vintage!
For a country that imports almost all of its energy, that's only pretending to have a useful military.
Not having nuclear weapons means not wanting to defend their own sovereignty? Put Cambodia and the rest of the world in that category. Only the US, Russia, China, India, Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Does that make them more patriotic?
Taiwan has been effectively barred from China from buying weapons on the world market forever. Any country that dares to sell has been threatened with blacklisting from China. Only the US has been bold enough to sell weapons to Taiwan. Even then, not top of the line so as to not to anger China.
BTW, the first Taiwanese produced diesel electric sub just rolled off the line. With key components from western countries, by way of AUKUS. Of a planned 8 subs. CM30 is a lightweight natively produced Taiwanese vehicle for street fighting. Uses local truck engine parts instead of military parts for easy repair.
What’s a fake Marine Corps? So Kinmen and Matsu have never been under attack? And the loss of Hainan island to the communists decades ago just fake news, too?
No one wants war. Except Xi. But his vote is the only one that actually matters.
Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
Google the Chinese military. It is huge now. Really!Random Dude wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:03 pm . ....... .
So now, what I 'think' is happening is... the CCP would rather carry on as usual and just let the Taiwan issue remain in the background, pretty much quietly let it go, but every time some foreign country makes a show of telling China to abandon their reunification ideas, it puts China in the position where they have to keep face and threaten to take Taiwan back, because face is everything in that culture. I can't help wondering if that's a deliberate thing.
I guess there's a chance Xi might be on a power trip too, wanting to be the next Ghengis Khan or something and throwing common sense to the wind to stroke his ego.
Everything depends on the psyche of a few people and particular and arbitrarily evolving geopolitical positions. As I said, if Trump comes back to power, then Xi will be 100 times more likely to play his gambit.
Without outside support, Taiwan would fall quickly and only a few partisans would hold out for a short time in the mountains and cities. The street fighting would not last too long...
It is easy to choke off an island... They would have no access to essential provisions of local food or especially to any imports once the Chinese took hold of ports and cities, etc...
~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~+~
“There are terrible difficulties in the notion of probability, but we may ignore them at present.” - Bertrand Russell
“There are terrible difficulties in the notion of probability, but we may ignore them at present.” - Bertrand Russell
- phuketrichard
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
wait till Jan 20th when trump takes office and lets see what develops
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
- John Bingham
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
Okay, let's wait till tomorrow.phuketrichard wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:14 am wait till Jan 20th when trump takes office and lets see what develops
Silence, exile, and cunning.
- phuketrichard
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
2025John Bingham wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:19 amOkay, let's wait till tomorrow.phuketrichard wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:14 am wait till Jan 20th when trump takes office and lets see what develops
In a nation run by swine, all pigs are upward-mobile and the rest of us are fucked until we can put our acts together: not necessarily to win, but mainly to keep from losing completely. HST
- JUDGEDREDD
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
John Bingham wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 11:19 amOkay, let's wait till tomorrow.phuketrichard wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 10:14 am wait till Jan 20th when trump takes office and lets see what develops
Slow down little world, you're changing too fast.
- newkidontheblock
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
Prickly porcupine defense never meant Taiwan was to go it alone to defeat the Chinese invasion.
Just like Ukraine could have never stopped the Russian invasion if it went it alone. Ukraine lost Crimea and Donbass when it when it went it alone.
Taiwan’s plan is to slow down the invasion. China needs to assemble a fleet and logistics not seen since World War 2. The tides are favorable for only a few months every year.
The sea lanes around Taiwan carry shipping from all of over East Asia - Japan, Korea, Philippines, etc. air routes connect East Asia and SE Asia and India together. All have a vested interest in keeping their supply lines open. If Taiwan falls, all those lines are gone. Also a majority of the world’s high end computer chips come from TSMC. The world depends on these chips. So lots of countries aren’t going to let it happen.
A first strike is the only chance for China to buy time for the invasion to have a chance of success.
Because of Ukraine, western countries are building more ammo factories that means troops can continue fighting longer.
Oh, the US has just tested a Stryker mounted laser defense system dealing with drone swarms. Happens to also stop mortar rounds and artillery. Now has 4, with more in production.
I hope war never happens.
Just like Ukraine could have never stopped the Russian invasion if it went it alone. Ukraine lost Crimea and Donbass when it when it went it alone.
Taiwan’s plan is to slow down the invasion. China needs to assemble a fleet and logistics not seen since World War 2. The tides are favorable for only a few months every year.
The sea lanes around Taiwan carry shipping from all of over East Asia - Japan, Korea, Philippines, etc. air routes connect East Asia and SE Asia and India together. All have a vested interest in keeping their supply lines open. If Taiwan falls, all those lines are gone. Also a majority of the world’s high end computer chips come from TSMC. The world depends on these chips. So lots of countries aren’t going to let it happen.
A first strike is the only chance for China to buy time for the invasion to have a chance of success.
Because of Ukraine, western countries are building more ammo factories that means troops can continue fighting longer.
Oh, the US has just tested a Stryker mounted laser defense system dealing with drone swarms. Happens to also stop mortar rounds and artillery. Now has 4, with more in production.
I hope war never happens.
- Random Dude
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
orichá wrote: ↑Fri Jan 19, 2024 9:27 amGoogle the Chinese military. It is huge now. Really!Random Dude wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 3:03 pm . ....... .
So now, what I 'think' is happening is... the CCP would rather carry on as usual and just let the Taiwan issue remain in the background, pretty much quietly let it go, but every time some foreign country makes a show of telling China to abandon their reunification ideas, it puts China in the position where they have to keep face and threaten to take Taiwan back, because face is everything in that culture. I can't help wondering if that's a deliberate thing.
I guess there's a chance Xi might be on a power trip too, wanting to be the next Ghengis Khan or something and throwing common sense to the wind to stroke his ego.
Yes, but to play the Devil's advocate, part of the social contract that I couldn't remember when I posted about it before was to ensure China wouldn't be invaded and occupied by foreign powers again. They had what they call their 'century of humiliation', which left deep scars on their culture and society.
A strong military is seen by the people as a vital protection against that happening again, it doesn't necessarily mean the government intends to invade Taiwan.
Everything depends on the psyche of a few people and particular and arbitrarily evolving geopolitical positions.
True. Xi is an unknown element, who knows what's going on in his head. Like I said before, he might have decided to go on a Ghengis Khan-style mission. Or, he might just be responding to outside goading to maintain face with the people.
- newkidontheblock
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
China is in the midst of a recession now.
Unemployment 20%, among the youth, 40%+. Millions have lost jobs, even the government is cutting back on military, research, and civil servant salaries. Everyone is scraping and downgrading lifestyles or fleeing back to the provinces. Meanwhile pension tax has gone to 40%+ of income with more increases in the future. The rich are going on vacation outside of China, taking an estimated $140 Billion with them to deposit overseas.
Going to war provides full employment, providing the government can issue the huge debts to pay for it.
Only one person holds the answer, and it sure isn’t me.
Unemployment 20%, among the youth, 40%+. Millions have lost jobs, even the government is cutting back on military, research, and civil servant salaries. Everyone is scraping and downgrading lifestyles or fleeing back to the provinces. Meanwhile pension tax has gone to 40%+ of income with more increases in the future. The rich are going on vacation outside of China, taking an estimated $140 Billion with them to deposit overseas.
Going to war provides full employment, providing the government can issue the huge debts to pay for it.
Only one person holds the answer, and it sure isn’t me.
- Random Dude
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Re: William Lai: Taiwan just chose a president China loathes
Good point.newkidontheblock wrote: ↑Wed Jan 24, 2024 5:23 pm China is in the midst of a recession now.
Unemployment 20%, among the youth, 40%+. Millions have lost jobs, even the government is cutting back on military, research, and civil servant salaries. Everyone is scraping and downgrading lifestyles or fleeing back to the provinces. Meanwhile pension tax has gone to 40%+ of income with more increases in the future. The rich are going on vacation outside of China, taking an estimated $140 Billion with them to deposit overseas.
Going to war provides full employment, providing the government can issue the huge debts to pay for it.
Only one person holds the answer, and it sure isn’t me.
The thing is though, everyone's economy is in the crap after covid, the Ukraine war pushing up oil prices, and all the other dramas over the past several years. From what I understand that is starting to turn around in some places so presumably the global situation will improve if nothing else happens to destabilise it more. When the global situation improves, China's situation improves with it.
In the meantime, China is still a trading nation. Their business model still relies on stability in the region and continued trade. I don't see how starting a war that would turn their biggest trade partners against them and turn their shipping routes into a war zone would do anything but make their financial situation worse.
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