ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Two belong to Heng Chandara, who was forced to shut restaurants last year for lack of customers. Re-opening, she said, wouldn't happen anytime soon.

"99% of our customers were foreigners. There's no way I can make any money," Chandara said. "I don't think I'll be able to open another restaurant for at least two years."


Most of these foreign owned bars and restaurants are done. I doubt if more than half will reopen in their current ownership. Pride and a refusal to crytalise losses and forfeit deposits will only last so long. And most of them will be gutted so the destruction of capital will be complete. The stubborn landlords will enjoy their deposits for a few months and then reality will bite.

If this lockdown goes on any more than a couple of months (short in global terms) then the price of new chains and padlocks will be going up.
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Rising Inflation Threatens to Swamp Cambodian Households
Many Cambodian households were in a precarious position even before COVID-19 hit.
By Nith Kosal
May 26, 2021

After the end of the financial crisis in 2009, Cambodia’s economy experienced vigorous growth, with GDP growth rates reaching 7 percent or more each year. But that growth has dropped off dramatically as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Hundreds of thousands of workers in the garment and footwear manufacturing sector, as well as in transport, tourism, and construction, have been affected by a sharp recession that has brought widespread job and income losses.

The shock has been caused in part by steep drops in household consumption expenditures, household savings, new FDI investment, and the amount and range of products being exported. Cambodia’s economic output shrunk by an unprecedented 3.1 percent in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. At the time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December had reflected a year-over-year upturn of 2.9 percent, which at a glance appears to be an uncomfortably high rate of inflation.

At this point in the pandemic, Cambodia – like much of the world – is in a position of Knightian uncertainty, in which we do not know the outcome of a given situation and cannot know all the information we need to make accurate assessments about the future. When we talk about inflation and interest rates, we are doing so in a context where there are many things that we do not know and which will likely remain unknown for a very long time.

There is uncertainty about the Phillips curve, the real unemployment rate and its relationship to the inflation rate. There is also uncertainty about multipliers, uncertainty about central bank dovishness, uncertainty about how much of the budget will support vulnerable people, and uncertainty about the size and the financing of the government’s economic stimulus package. All these uncertainties have a negative impact on governments’ and economists’ ability to produce policy recommendations aimed at solving the problem.

Despite all of the uncertainties, however, rising inflation is a problem that Cambodian economists and relevant government officials must be focused on. The issue looms as a grave concern, especially for low-income households, the unemployed, and those who make their living in the informal economy.
Full article: https://thediplomat.com/2021/05/rising- ... ouseholds/
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Cambodia's agricultural exports up 88 pct in first 9 months this year: minister
BY: Xinhua News Agency October 2, 2021 11:36 AM

PHNOM PENH-- Cambodia exported 5.93 million tons of agricultural produce during the first nine months of 2021, up 88 percent over the same period last year, Agriculture Minister Veng Sakhon said on Friday.

Shipped to 68 countries and regions, the Southeast Asian nation made a gross revenue of nearly 3.49 billion U.S. dollars from the exports during the January-September period this year, he wrote on social media.

He said potential agricultural products for exports included rice, rubber, cassava, mangoes, fresh bananas, pepper, cashew nuts, corn, palm oil, and tobacco, among others.

"In sum, during the first nine months of 2021, non-rice exports increased by 107 percent, while milled rice exports declined by 16 percent due to shipping container shortages and higher shipping costs," Sakhon said.
https://cambodianess.com/article/cambod ... r-minister
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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IMF Medium-Term Outlook Sees Cambodia’s Growth Rebounding to 6.6%
AKP Phnom Penh, October 13, 2021 --

Vietnam, Cambodia and the Philippines are projected to have the fastest growing economies in Southeast Asia in five years, according to medium-term projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

In its World Economic Outlook released in Washington Tuesday, the IMF projected GDP growth at 6.9 percent for Vietnam, 6.6 percent for Cambodia and 6.5 percent for the Philippines in 2026.

Among other emerging and developing ASEAN economies, the IMF projected growth rates of 5.8 percent for Laos, 5.2 percent for Indonesia, 5.O percent for Malaysia, 3.6 percent for Thailand, 2.5 percent for Myanmar and 2.1 percent for Brunei.

In the shorter term, Cambodia is expected to be among the top five ASEAN economies in terms of growth in 2022 with GDP forecast to expand by 5.7 percent.

That compares with 6.6 percent in Vietnam, 6.3 percent in the Philippines, 6.0 percent in Malaysia and 5.9 percent in Indonesia.

Growth is projected to be slower at 4.5 percent in Thailand, 4.2 percent in Laos, 3.2 percent in Singapore and 2.6 percent in Brunei whereas GDP is forecast to shrink by 0.1 percent in Myanmar.

For the current year, the IMF forecast Cambodia’s GDP growth at 1.9 percent, reversing a contraction of 3.1 percent last year.

Singapore is expected to be the fastest growing economy in Southeast Asia this year with GDP expanding by 6.0 percent after shrinking 5.4 percent last year.

Among other ASEAN economies, the IMF forecast growth rates of 3.8 percent for Vietnam, 3.5 percent for Malaysia, 3.2 percent for both Indonesia and the Philippines, 2.1 percent for Laos, 2.0 percent in Brunei and 1.0 percent in Thailand.
- AKP
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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ADB Forecasts 5.3% Growth for Cambodia This Year, 6.5% Next Year
AKP Phnom Penh, April 06, 2022 --

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecast Wednesday that the Cambodian economy would expand by 5.3 percent this year, with growth accelerating to 6.5 percent next year.

“Growth in the economies of major trading partners will continue to support the strong momentum of Cambodia’s merchandise exports and inflows of foreign direct investment,” the ADB’s annual Asian Development Outlook said.

Cambodia’s industry output is expected to grow 8.1 percent this year and 9.1 percent next year.

Growth in exports of garments, travel goods, and footwear is expected to be driven by strong external demand supported by relocation of orders from China and neighbouring countries.

"This growth will also be buoyed by the implementation of the Garments, Footwear and Travel Goods Development Strategy to raise competitiveness in this segment,” the outlook said.

The ADB said growth of non-garment manufacturing should reflect strong external demand supported by recent free-trade agreements with China and Korea and Cambodia’s new investment law.

Growth in services is meanwhile forecast to rebound 4.8 percent this year and 6.8 percent next year.

"This forecast, however, assumes that renewed COVID-19 infections driven by new variants will only have a mild impact on mobility,” the ADB said.
https://www.akp.gov.kh/post/detail/251635
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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More details on regional economic growth forecasts for 2022-23:

ADB Backs Strong Cambodian Economic Growth

07/04/2022
The Asian Development Bank (ADP) expects Cambodia’s economy to grow by 5.3 per cent in 2022 and 6.5 per cent in 2023, it announced at its April Asia-Pacific Development Outlook 2022.
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https://www.b2b-cambodia.com/news/adb-b ... ic-growth/
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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Cambodia’s Trade Valued at Over US$13 billion in First Quarter
AKP Phnom Penh, April 18, 2022 --

The total trade volume between Cambodia and its partners reached US$13.162 billion in the first quarter of this year, up 9.1 percent compared to the same period last year.

Figures from the General Department of Customs and Excise at the Ministry of Economy and Finance showed that Cambodia exported US$5.716 billion worth of products to foreign markets, a year-on-year increase of 25.7 percent.

At the same time, the Kingdom’s imports saw a decrease by 0.9 percent to US$7.445 billion.

The U.S. is the biggest market for Cambodia’s exports during the said period, amounting to US$2.150 billion, up 43.7 percent, following by Vietnam, Thailand, and China with US$758.8 million, US$248.5 million, and US$333.5 billion, respectively.

On the other hand, Cambodia imported US$2.551 billion worth of goods and raw materials from China, a 30.1 percent increase compared to the first three months of 2021.

By Chea Vannak
AKP
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Re: ECONOMY Cambodia's new COVID crisis clips growth prospects - article from Nikkei Asia Review

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ADB Maintains Cambodia’s Growth Forecast in 2022 at 5.3%, Revises Down Projection for 2023 to 6.2%
AKP Phnom Penh, September 21, 2022 --
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) maintained its economic growth forecast for Cambodia at 5.3 percent in 2022 but lowered the 2023 forecast to 6.2 percent from 6.5 percent due to weaker global growth.
Image

According to the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2022 Update, released today, Cambodia’s garments, travel goods, and footwear outputs remained robust, registering 39.8 percent year-on-year growth in the first half of 2022, despite the economic slowdown in the United States and Europe. The non-garment manufacturing sector continued its strong growth momentum. Construction gradually recovered, with imports of construction materials rising 22.8 percent. Industry output is projected to grow 9.1 percent this year, before moderating to 8.6 percent in 2023 because of weaker external demand.

“An increase in Cambodia’s manufactured product exports, and a gradual recovery in the construction and service sectors, have supported economic growth in 2022 despite the drop in agricultural growth caused by surging fuel and fertiliser prices and heavy rains,” said ADB Country Director for Cambodia Jyotsana Varma. “The government’s socioeconomic interventions such as the Cash Transfer Programme for Poor and Vulnerable Households have been effective in lessening the impacts of the global surges in commodity prices on the poor.”

The report revises Cambodia’s 2022 inflation forecast to 5.0 percent, from the 4.7 percent forecast in April, due to the strong pass-through effects of fuel price increases caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The inflation forecast for 2023 was kept at 2.2 percent.
- AKP
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