THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

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cabron
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by cabron »

ExPenhMan wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:13 pm Sorry, I didn't read this massive piece, largely because the issue has been covered by media and books for some years.

Two links to articles on a 2018 book, "Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline" by two Canadian authors: John Ibbotson, long time respected political commentator for the national newspaper The Globe and Mail, and Darrell Bricker, PhD, political science and longtime pollster. In a nutshell, the UN's dire forecasts of world population growth to 9 billion, then 10 billion (2050) and up to 11 billion (2100) people are absolutely wrong, because birth rates are falling to and through the floor.

Good.

https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by- ... itson.html

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... prediction
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by Freightdog »

IraHayes wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:10 pm And here's me left wondering why for years we were warned of the imminent dangers of over-population and sustainability etc etc.

Now there appears to be a naturally occurring correction as people just decide not to have children.

I know I'll just add it to the list of things they said we should worry about that just turned out to be simply bollocks.
I don’t think it’s entirely bollocks.
The Chinese have been courting foreign skills and services for many years. Their aviation industry is one of the few actively recruiting (or rehiring) flight crews, which sticks in my throat for the turmoil that this pandemic has caused.
Worldwide, ageing populations have persisted through advances in modern medicine, and modern living. But not since dad’s army have otherwise unsuitable characters been employed to undertake roles that they may not have the capacity to fulfil. (Yes, I’m being a bit flippant. Politicians do this all the time…)
With China, my personal hope is that their ageing population is increasingly unsuited to international travel, while their working population is increasingly too busy to do so. Naturally self correcting may be just a tad glacial in its results,
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by Clutch Cargo »

Freightdog wrote: Tue Sep 28, 2021 12:38 pm
IraHayes wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 6:10 pm And here's me left wondering why for years we were warned of the imminent dangers of over-population and sustainability etc etc.

Now there appears to be a naturally occurring correction as people just decide not to have children.

I know I'll just add it to the list of things they said we should worry about that just turned out to be simply bollocks.
I don’t think it’s entirely bollocks.
The Chinese have been courting foreign skills and services for many years. Their aviation industry is one of the few actively recruiting (or rehiring) flight crews, which sticks in my throat for the turmoil that this pandemic has caused.
Worldwide, ageing populations have persisted through advances in modern medicine, and modern living. But not since dad’s army have otherwise unsuitable characters been employed to undertake roles that they may not have the capacity to fulfil. (Yes, I’m being a bit flippant. Politicians do this all the time…)
With China, my personal hope is that their ageing population is increasingly unsuited to international travel, while their working population is increasingly too busy to do so. Naturally self correcting may be just a tad glacial in its results,
I suspect wishful thinking there Freightdog. :beer3:

I just did some maths....there are 1.4 billion people in China. If only 0.5% travel OS that's 7 million :shock:
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ali baba
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by ali baba »

I wish people could write these articles without making stupid predictions.
"Man skips breakfast. I predict he will starve to death in 6 weeks due to skipping all his meals."

As population declines the quality and cost of living improves so people may be willing to have more children in a future generation. I'd also like to measure GDP per capita and PPP to judge the health of an economy. Plenty of countries can boast about their gdp and inflation being healthy whilst workers can't afford housing anymore.

Much of Africa is undergoing a population boom right now. I expect this will cause more harm than good for some of them especially if advancements in automation and robotics make their workforce redundant, denying them their 'demographic dividend'.
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by CEOCambodiaNews »

High unplanned pregnancies and low birth rates present a paradox in Southeast Asia
Covid-19 has contributed to demographic problems in the ageing nations of the region, requiring a response including more education and access to healthcare for women
Andreas Jorgensen
September 25, 2021

Ask most people about the greatest healthcare and societal challenges facing our region and they’ll point to Covid-19. Fighting the pandemic must naturally be our first health priority, but we should not neglect the urgent issues of our demographic development.

We can do that while simultaneously addressing the widespread problem of unplanned pregnancies, fighting both challenges with the same means.

Southeast Asia nations are undergoing varying stages of population ageing. The World Bank estimates that by 2030, most countries in the region, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, will become ageing societies, while Singapore and Thailand will even become aged ones. Intensifying this challenge is the falling fertility rates over the past 50 years.

While many countries in the region have birth rates fluctuating around 2.1 children, it is expected the birth rate will continue to decline. For example, Thailand’s rate today has dropped to 1.5, while Singapore has an even lower rate of 1.1, far below the 2.1 required to maintain a stable population.

Low fertility rates have an economic and societal impact, not least in terms of public spending on healthcare and retirement pensions as fewer hands must do the work to support a growing population of older people.

Covid-19 has only exacerbated decades of slow population growth. Some analysts predicted a baby boom when the pandemic started, and while this has happened in some corners of the world, the opposite has been the case for others, including Southeast Asia. Largely due to uncertainty and anxieties, people have delayed or cancelled plans to start or expand their families. Many fertility clinics either postponed treatment cycles or closed altogether to slow the virus spread. A study found patients across age brackets, from under 30 to 42, experienced delays of six to 12 months.

Some Southeast Asia countries have experienced a large number of unintended or unplanned pregnancies, especially among teenagers and young adults. In Malaysia, almost half (42.9%) of pregnancies are unplanned. Similarly, NGO MSI Reproductive Choices reports it helped prevent more than 860,000 unintended pregnancies in Vietnam in 2020.

New data from the United Nations Population Fund show that as a result of measures arising from Covid-19 such as social distancing, lockdown strategies and mobility restrictions, as well as fear of travelling to health facilities, an estimated 12 million women may have been unable to access family planning supplies and services, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

As a result of these disruptions, as many as 1.4 million unintended pregnancies may have occurred in these countries before women were able to resume use of family planning services. These unplanned pregnancies can impact women and society in many ways, including physical and mental health implications and longer-term financial difficulties.
Full article: https://southeastasiaglobe.com/unplanned-pregnancies/
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by nerdlinger »

What’s that you say? An economic model based on the concept of constant growth is turning out to be unsustainable and might have to change? I’m shocked. :shock:
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by Multipox »

yong wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 1:08 pm https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-B ... 2&si=44594

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The world's population is on the precipice of decline and possible extinction.

....

The future will belong to those societies that can restructure to face decline before it is too late.
well, men, I think we've got our work cut out for us. :greet:
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Re: THE NEW POPULATION BOMB

Post by Ghostwriter »

Indonesia, 80 M in 1970, 275 M in 2021.
But yeah, it not baaad news to deflate a bit, by natural ways.

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