another truck load this thread could go on for years
More pigs found with ASF in Banteay Meanchey
At least 40 pigs found with African Swine Flu (AFS) were culled in Banteay Meanchey province last week, after authorities seized an illegal vehicle transporting them from Thailand.
The pigs were tested via a mobile laboratory and some of them were detected to have AFS, said Pang Vannaseth, director of the provincial Agriculture, Forestry, and Fisheries Departmen, adding that the cull was made on Friday last week.
The pigs were seized earlier last week as traders tried to import them illegally from Thailand, he said, adding that people involved in the illegal trade of live pigs have been warned and educated not to continue the practise.
“Authorities culled all the live pigs after finding African swine fever and several people involved in the trade were given education to not continue this illegal business anymore,” Vannaseth told Khmer Times yesterday.
Live pigs imported without certified documents were also culled in Banteay Meanchey province in Febrary after being found to have ASF.
That was the first time since July 2019 that ASF has been detected in Cambodia when the outbreak of the virus killed 1,000 pigs and another 800 pigs were culled.
ASF is a viral disease affecting pigs and wild boar with up to a 100 percent fatality rate, but it does not harm humans. There is no vaccine or cure.
Last Thursday, 102 pigs were culled in Takeo province after testing positive for AFS, after traders imported them illegally into Stung Treng province from Laos.
The government, through the Ministry of Agriculture, has called on traders to stop importing live pigs illegally. They are required to provide animal health check certificates from authorities in order to import the animals.
Tan Phanara, director-general of the ministry’s Animal Health and Production Department, said the price of live pigs in Thailand is lower than in Cambodia.
This has led illegal traders to try and import live pigs to Cambodia with certified documents and use Cambodia as a transiting country to transport those pigs to Vietnam, he said.
According to the Cambodia pig raising association, if the virus spreads to pig farms in the Kingdom, the cost of loss in the pig raising sector is estimated at $60 to $70 million.

Wanted: Millions of sows for China



The reconstruction of China’s pig industry, which was ruined by African Swine Fever (ASF), will be much faster in 2021 than it was last year. International breeding organisations are gearing up to be able to get their share, as the Chinese market is virtually insatiable.

Even breeding organisations only have 24 hours in a day, yet they wish they had more. In an attempt to restock China with sufficient numbers of breeding animals, it’s easy to get the impression that the Asian giant is all that matters.

Take, for instance, French genetics company Choice. In France and the United States the company has adjusted its breeding programme to be able to accommodate the Chinese market. What’s more, in France capacity has been expanded to produce additional breeding material, primarily for China, says Jim Schirmer, the company’s director for business development Asia.

They are not the exceptions, as these days every breeding company is keen to increase its stakes share in China, a country with a virtually insatiable market. Before ASF entered the country in 2018, China had roughly 45 million sows. It is estimated that half of them disappeared, either directly due to the virus or indirectly through culling. What is clear is that China will need whopping numbers of production sows in the next few years.



Pork production in China on the rise

Pork production in China is on the rise as we speak. Ernst van Orsouw, global director of strategy and marketing at Genus/PIC, estimates that more than half the sows in China these days have been “promoted” from the finisher barns. In other words, these sows are not F1 animals, but finisher pigs that are not as productive or proliferative. In due course, these sows will have to make way for F1 sows, while regular replacement of sows continues.



Hendrix Genetics reports that it aims to increase its position in China. Over the last few years, a start has been made to expand the number of breeding animals. That was only a relatively small step. More investments will follow, directly aimed at the Chinese market, but at this stage the company cannot comment any further.



In addition, French company Axiom is investing strongly in the Chinese market, says export sales representative Sigrid Willems. The company is also selling genetics to Chinese customers so they can start building their own in-farm breeding programmes. In China, Axiom will supervise these programmes. Axiom also has a local foot on the ground, so semen can be easily exported to China.



Numbers of breeding pigs transported

The export targets confirm this trend of breeding companies strengthening their position in the Chinese market.

In total, across all breeding companies, in 2020 alone almost 28,000 great-grandparent (GGP) pigs were shipped to China, according to French breeding company Nucléus. Most of these were sent from France and Denmark.

With 28,000 exported GGP animals per year, there is a solid basis to help China achieve sufficient levels of production sows. If 2020 numbers are achieved three years in a row, and taking into account some annual growth as well, by late 2022 there could be roughly 100,000 GGP animals shipped to China. With that number of GGP animals it is theoretically possible to produce 20 million F1 sows in the longer term.

Not every breeding company has been sharing information about their intentions or plans for 2021. Nucléus says in 2020 the company was responsible for almost 25% of the 28,000 (about 6,300 animals of which over 5,000 were Large White sows). In 2021, the company aims to ship a similar number to China. Julien Rogon, the company’s export manager, expects that 10,000 animals will be feasible as well.

Choice is accelerating in 2021. The company is striving to export at least 14,000 breeding pigs to China in 2021, equivalent to ten times their 2020 numbers. That year, the company was preparing and adjusting its breeding goals for China.

Axiom also sees potential growth, aiming to transport 9,000 GGP pigs to China in 2021. The first shipment has already occurred, with the first 2,000 Axiom breeding pigs being shipped to Guiyang in central-southern China in three planes. These animals embarked from Brest airport in Western France.



Growth and pig health in China

Repopulation is one thing; disease pressure is another. The breeding companies active in China, however, all notice that awareness about biosecurity on Chinese pig farms has strongly increased since ASF entered the country in August 2018. If the virus is detected on a farm, it usually happens at a fairly early stage, leading to the depopulation of only part of the pig inventory.

ASF virus is still strongly present in China, and pig production companies do keep getting infected with ASF. On farms in infected areas, all staff have to comply fully with hygiene measures to avoid the virus being introduced. One mistake could have catastrophic consequences.

There are other challenges as well. The cold, for instance, as winter temperatures drop to below 0°C in northern China, ideal for viruses to thrive. In addition, ASFv is not the only pathogen – others prevail too, such as Porcine Epidemic Diarrhoea virus. Add to that the use of finisher pigs in the breeding phase, with piglets born being weaker in general, and the cocktail is risky to say the least.

In short, the question of when China’s pig production will be completely back on track is difficult to answer. The uncertainty is huge, and China’s pig industry will most likely have to live with the fact that it will have to produce pig meat in an area where the ASF virus will be endemic.



Production recovery in 2024

Yet projections and plans are being made, not least by the Chinese authorities themselves. At the end of last year, Beijing called for a rapid recovery of pig meat production, hoping that for consumers prices will decrease, leading to lower inflation levels. Companies now present in China are noticing that the recovery of the pig sector has been accelerating since late last year.

China, like no other country in the world, is capable of the renaissance and facilitation of a sector in a relatively short amount of time. Rabobank expects that by 2024, Chinese pig meat production will be back to pre-ASF levels. Breeding organisations active in China have, by and large, agreed with the bank’s projections. Hendrix Genetics representatives add that across the Chinese pig industry there is great determination to achieve targets set to reconstruct the industry.

Van Orsouw, PIC, discerns two different phases in this surge. The first includes the growth of the number of sows. The second is the improvement of sow productivity. Especially for the second phase, China still has a long way to go. He says that Chinese pig farms have great difficulty in finding sufficient capable staff needed for these expansion plans. Dutch animal nutrition company Agrifirm recently estimated that average production in China is most likely below 20 piglets weaned per sow per year.



Continuing to invest

It is fair to conclude that in the next few years, China will continue to invest in strengthening its own breeding structure. Hendrix Genetics deduces that tendency from the willingness of Chinese state and private companies to start joint ventures with international breeding companies. Due to the disease pressure, pig breeding in China has known its ups and downs, with many important lessons learnt.

Nucléus has proven that it is possible to maintain SPF levels at a nucleus farm. The French breeder, however, expects that importing breeding pigs will continue to be necessary for China. Putting the Chinese initiatives into perspective, export manager Rogon remarks that this message of China developing its own breeding sector has been repeated frequently over the last 20 years, without actually getting close to achieving it. For now the demand for pork is so large, that importing breeding pigs will be of major importance in getting the shelves filled.



Continuing need for pig meat imports

It is expected that Chinese imports peaked in 2020. Rabobank states that China imported 5.6 million tonnes of pig meat and related products, which is an 85% year-on-year increase. For 2021, it is expected there will be a drop in imports of 10–30%, resulting from growth in domestic production. Pig meat exporting countries are going to notice that, Rabobank writes. To give an idea: a decrease of pork imports into China of 1 million tonnes is similar to the annual production of Belgium.

Breeding companies agree with the Rabobank estimates, even though all projections are surrounded by uncertainty. China will most likely continue to import pig meat products, even when domestic production returns to pre-ASF levels. There will be a continuous demand for offal anyway in China. Prior to ASF, China imported 2.5 million tonnes of meat and offal.



New construction sites

Exemplifying the reconstruction of the Chinese pig sector is what Muyuan Foods is building. Late in 2020 the news broke that Muyuan is building very probably the largest pig farm in the world, in Nanyang, central China. Close to that city a farm is being constructed for 84,000 sows with weaned piglets, in 21 pig houses.

It is a risky step, as the large farms are certainly not immune to ASF and other pig diseases going around in China. The company’s plans are therefore often followed by insiders with a certain level of scepticism. However, large farms are increasingly responsible for pork production in China. High prices for pigs makes investing relatively easy. Last January, the Chinese pig price was high at € 4.89/kg liveweight.

Rabobank projects that this price will drop to € 3/kg, as increasing production will push prices down. In the longer term, further price drops will be a risk for these large companies. Their cost price is around € 2.55/kg meat. There will be a time when increased production will lead to revenue prices sinking below cost price. Then losses could suddenly add up.