Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm But my question still stands, measured infections are on the rise, at least in the Netherlands, and hospitalizations don't follow the trend. So why all the measures then?

I understand nobody in government wants to get the blame for deaths,...

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm Some people specializing in health state more lives are lost by the measures than are saved,..

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm and economies are drowning. State debts have exploded..

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:15 pm When this all started, most people in most countries were quite happy to follow the instructions and abide by the restrictions such as lock-down given by their respective governments. Everyone was scared. Nobody knew how this was going to play out. People were genuinely frightened and there was some acceptance that governments didn't quite know what they were doing. It made sense to most people that we shut ourselves away until those in charge had enough data to start making more informed decisions.

We're now eight months or so down the line and a lot has changed. Many of those who had accepted that catching the virus was inevitable have found that it wasn't quite as inevitable as they first thought. While it remains a highly contagious disease, the fact is that the majority have still not become infected. And the overwhelming majority of those who have been infected, have come off largely unscathed. This has, understandably, led many to relax their guard and in most cases, not only ignore the instructions and restrictions put in place, but to view them with a large dose of contempt.

The fact that there have been so many mixed, confusing and difficult to understand messages from governments has not helped at all. When I say 'difficult to understand', I don't mean the instructions are difficult to understand, I mean the logic behind them has been so contradictory, people have lost all faith in what they're being told.

The problem governments will have now, as the northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter, and cases are already on the rise, is that the obedience they once enjoyed just a few short months ago will be in short supply. Just when they need it the most.

The question is, what happens then? The UK issued new restrictions just yesterday, which gives the police special powers to break up any groups of more than six people, and fine individuals up to £3,200 for breaking the new rules. They also have plans to introduce 'Covid Wardens' - essentially, power-hungry busybodies who have the potential to create a lot of animosity with their new-found powers. We are already seeing videos online of things like a man innocently sitting on a train, being set-upon by an over-zealous 'special constable' for not wearing a mask. Scenes you'd expect to see in mush less democratic countries than the UK.

So what happens when people refuse to abide by the new laws en mass? How far are governments willing to go to enforce new restrictions? How far down the authoritarian rabbit-hole are democratically elected governments prepared to push it?

It'll be an interesting winter...

Yes, it will be an interesting winter.

But my question still stands, measured infections are on the rise, at least in the Netherlands, and hospitalizations don't follow the trend. So why all the measures then?

I understand nobody in government wants to get the blame for deaths, but the path chosen now receives a lot of critisism too. Some people specializing in health state more lives are lost by the measures than are saved, and economies are drowning. State debts have exploded. I'm no expert, but I see 'infections' explode, while hospitalizations don't seem to follow trend.

Just look at the graphs I posted. Source: Dutch government.

So I'm confused, and I have been for 2-3 months now. Being infected doesn't seem to imply a (major) health problem anymore. And wasn't it all about "flattening the curve"? The curve has been flat for months, yet still....

clutchcargo wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:37 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm But my question still stands, measured infections are on the rise, at least in the Netherlands, and hospitalizations don't follow the trend. So why all the measures then?

I understand nobody in government wants to get the blame for deaths,...

I think you answered your own question right there.. No of tests, no of cases et al are all rubbery figures in my book...what really matters are numbers of deaths. The US has had approx. 189,000 deaths and averaging 1000 per day for some months. Come down a bit in the last week but going into the winter.. Maybe Holland has managed better in this regard. India has big problems. 2nd wave in Spain/France.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm Some people specializing in health state more lives are lost by the measures than are saved,..

Source? I've read about higher instances of mental health issues, domestic violence et al but is this claim correct statistically? What about the lives saved by the lack of road traffic accidents due to the restrictions?

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm and economies are drowning. State debts have exploded..

Sure, no doubt about that...but there's this MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) aka fiat money, money printing that governments are using which they will presumably eventually inflate away in the future.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 6:00 pm

xandreu wrote: ↑Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:15 pm When this all started, most people in most countries were quite happy to follow the instructions and abide by the restrictions such as lock-down given by their respective governments. Everyone was scared. Nobody knew how this was going to play out. People were genuinely frightened and there was some acceptance that governments didn't quite know what they were doing. It made sense to most people that we shut ourselves away until those in charge had enough data to start making more informed decisions.

We're now eight months or so down the line and a lot has changed. Many of those who had accepted that catching the virus was inevitable have found that it wasn't quite as inevitable as they first thought. While it remains a highly contagious disease, the fact is that the majority have still not become infected. And the overwhelming majority of those who have been infected, have come off largely unscathed. This has, understandably, led many to relax their guard and in most cases, not only ignore the instructions and restrictions put in place, but to view them with a large dose of contempt.

The fact that there have been so many mixed, confusing and difficult to understand messages from governments has not helped at all. When I say 'difficult to understand', I don't mean the instructions are difficult to understand, I mean the logic behind them has been so contradictory, people have lost all faith in what they're being told.

The problem governments will have now, as the northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter, and cases are already on the rise, is that the obedience they once enjoyed just a few short months ago will be in short supply. Just when they need it the most.

The question is, what happens then? The UK issued new restrictions just yesterday, which gives the police special powers to break up any groups of more than six people, and fine individuals up to £3,200 for breaking the new rules. They also have plans to introduce 'Covid Wardens' - essentially, power-hungry busybodies who have the potential to create a lot of animosity with their new-found powers. We are already seeing videos online of things like a man innocently sitting on a train, being set-upon by an over-zealous 'special constable' for not wearing a mask. Scenes you'd expect to see in mush less democratic countries than the UK.

So what happens when people refuse to abide by the new laws en mass? How far are governments willing to go to enforce new restrictions? How far down the authoritarian rabbit-hole are democratically elected governments prepared to push it?

It'll be an interesting winter...

Yes, it will be an interesting winter.

But my question still stands, measured infections are on the rise, at least in the Netherlands, and hospitalizations don't follow the trend. So why all the measures then?

I understand nobody in government wants to get the blame for deaths, but the path chosen now receives a lot of critisism too. Some people specializing in health state more lives are lost by the measures than are saved, and economies are drowning. State debts have exploded. I'm no expert, but I see 'infections' explode, while hospitalizations don't seem to follow trend.

Just look at the graphs I posted. Source: Dutch government.

So I'm confused, and I have been for 2-3 months now. Being infected doesn't seem to imply a (major) health problem anymore. And wasn't it all about "flattening the curve"? The curve has been flat for months, yet still....