Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

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Kammekor
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Kammekor »

Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:43 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:16 am Canada had 1400+ new Covid19 cases on Sept 8th, the highest daily count since May 3rd. 439,000 new cases worldwide on the first of September worldwide, the highest daily number since the pandemic began. 2400+ new cases in the UK on Sept 8th , eqaul to the number on March 27th.

Deaths from Covid 19 on Sept 4 worldwide were 6000, equal to the beginning of April. 1070 deaths in the USA on Sept 3 equal to April 2. 27,000,000
Covid19 cases worldwide with 893,000 deaths.

Perhaps the virus has a lower morbidity rate but as the number of people infected increases exponentially, the number of dead humans will continue to climb.
Yes, the number of people dying from CoVid19 will continue to climb over time, but so will the number of people dying from other viruses. The virus is with us, and will stay with us. Infections go up, and infections will go up more when the Northern Hemisphere goes into winter. But the number of infections is a very bad number to base policies on. There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... alizations

I don t agree with you and suggest you visit both these cdc sites for a truer picture if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations
Sorry, but those sources don't show a relationship between the number of infected people and the number of hospitalizations.
Please back up your claim with more than dropping two links.
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Anthony's Weiner »

Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:55 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:43 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:16 am Canada had 1400+ new Covid19 cases on Sept 8th, the highest daily count since May 3rd. 439,000 new cases worldwide on the first of September worldwide, the highest daily number since the pandemic began. 2400+ new cases in the UK on Sept 8th , eqaul to the number on March 27th.

Deaths from Covid 19 on Sept 4 worldwide were 6000, equal to the beginning of April. 1070 deaths in the USA on Sept 3 equal to April 2. 27,000,000
Covid19 cases worldwide with 893,000 deaths.

Perhaps the virus has a lower morbidity rate but as the number of people infected increases exponentially, the number of dead humans will continue to climb.
Yes, the number of people dying from CoVid19 will continue to climb over time, but so will the number of people dying from other viruses. The virus is with us, and will stay with us. Infections go up, and infections will go up more when the Northern Hemisphere goes into winter. But the number of infections is a very bad number to base policies on. There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... alizations

I don t agree with you and suggest you visit both these cdc sites for a truer picture if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations
Sorry, but those sources don't show a relationship between the number of infected people and the number of hospitalizations.
Please back up your claim with more than dropping two links.
I wonder why you offer no evidence that "There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare."

Both sites clearly show the number of people hospitalzed with Covi19. A simple Google search of the number of people contracting Covid19 would show even the most myopic of us te relationship. I prefaced my suggestion with the prevision "if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations". Tha adage "You can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink" comes to mind
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Kammekor »

Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:24 am I wonder why you offer no evidence that "There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare."

Both sites clearly show the number of people hospitalzed with Covi19. A simple Google search of the number of people contracting Covid19 would show even the most myopic of us te relationship. I prefaced my suggestion with the prevision "if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations". Tha adage "You can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink" comes to mind
I posted two graphs from the Netherlands, one showing the number of daily infections measured (right, showing daily measured positive test going up significantly over the last two months), one showing the number of hospitalizations (left, nearly flat line). Here it's again.

Image

I also posted the source.

I can see no correlation between the two. Now please guide me to a similar pair of graphs showing a correlation between the two. I can't find in on the sites you linked to, or deduct it from the info.

The sites you linked two give a clear number of the people hospitalized:
Image

But nowhere to be found is the total number of people testing positive for the virus.
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by newkidontheblock »

Kammekor wrote:But nowhere to be found is the total number of people testing positive for the virus.
The problem is determining those infectious = can spread the virus, from infected = exposed to the virus. Depending on the test and individual, positive exposure to the virus can last weeks to months.

At the beginning, all the infected were infectious. Large numbers were overwhelming the health care system. Now the infected aren’t necessarily infectious. Also, social distancing, masks, gloves, lockdown, etc., has lowered the number of infectious. And finally the health care system has evolved as well. The initial wave that were sick were critically ill and remained so for a long time, which meant less and less capacity to deal with new cases.

The next challenge will be all those recovered but with continuing health problems afterwards.
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by monomial »

Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:24 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:55 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:43 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:16 am Canada had 1400+ new Covid19 cases on Sept 8th, the highest daily count since May 3rd. 439,000 new cases worldwide on the first of September worldwide, the highest daily number since the pandemic began. 2400+ new cases in the UK on Sept 8th , eqaul to the number on March 27th.

Deaths from Covid 19 on Sept 4 worldwide were 6000, equal to the beginning of April. 1070 deaths in the USA on Sept 3 equal to April 2. 27,000,000
Covid19 cases worldwide with 893,000 deaths.

Perhaps the virus has a lower morbidity rate but as the number of people infected increases exponentially, the number of dead humans will continue to climb.
Yes, the number of people dying from CoVid19 will continue to climb over time, but so will the number of people dying from other viruses. The virus is with us, and will stay with us. Infections go up, and infections will go up more when the Northern Hemisphere goes into winter. But the number of infections is a very bad number to base policies on. There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... alizations

I don t agree with you and suggest you visit both these cdc sites for a truer picture if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations
Sorry, but those sources don't show a relationship between the number of infected people and the number of hospitalizations.
Please back up your claim with more than dropping two links.
I wonder why you offer no evidence that "There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare."

Both sites clearly show the number of people hospitalzed with Covi19. A simple Google search of the number of people contracting Covid19 would show even the most myopic of us te relationship. I prefaced my suggestion with the prevision "if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations". Tha adage "You can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink" comes to mind
The answer to your question is that he posted an easy to see graph that clearly demonstrated his position. If you are going to simply post links, and don't have a nice visual, then please tell us what the R value is (the correlation coefficient) for your data sets between infections and hospitalizations. If you don't have a visual that makes it obvious at a glance, that is the next best thing.

Nobody has the time or inclination to do a research project to decide whether your position is valid or not. I have no idea what is in your links. I'm too busy to check. And posting the links is meaningless if you aren't going to summarize what is in them.

If you would like to justify your position with real data, then please make it easy for all of us to agree with you. The problem is you have not led any horses to water. You have only provided a map that requires us to trek 50 miles over rugged terrain to reach water...maybe. You should not be surprised there are no horses drinking. You need to actually do the leading first.
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Kammekor »

newkidontheblock wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:57 pm
Kammekor wrote:But nowhere to be found is the total number of people testing positive for the virus.
The problem is determining those infectious = can spread the virus, from infected = exposed to the virus. Depending on the test and individual, positive exposure to the virus can last weeks to months.

At the beginning, all the infected were infectious. Large numbers were overwhelming the health care system. Now the infected aren’t necessarily infectious. Also, social distancing, masks, gloves, lockdown, etc., has lowered the number of infectious. And finally the health care system has evolved as well. The initial wave that were sick were critically ill and remained so for a long time, which meant less and less capacity to deal with new cases.

The next challenge will be all those recovered but with continuing health problems afterwards.
Any backup for that claim?
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by xandreu »

When this all started, most people in most countries were quite happy to follow the instructions and abide by the restrictions such as lock-down given by their respective governments. Everyone was scared. Nobody knew how this was going to play out. People were genuinely frightened and there was some acceptance that governments didn't quite know what they were doing. It made sense to most people that we shut ourselves away until those in charge had enough data to start making more informed decisions.

We're now eight months or so down the line and a lot has changed. Many of those who had accepted that catching the virus was inevitable have found that it wasn't quite as inevitable as they first thought. While it remains a highly contagious disease, the fact is that the majority have still not become infected. And the overwhelming majority of those who have been infected, have come off largely unscathed. This has, understandably, led many to relax their guard and in most cases, not only ignore the instructions and restrictions put in place, but to view them with a large dose of contempt.

The fact that there have been so many mixed, confusing and difficult to understand messages from governments has not helped at all. When I say 'difficult to understand', I don't mean the instructions are difficult to understand, I mean the logic behind them has been so contradictory, people have lost all faith in what they're being told.

The problem governments will have now, as the northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter, and cases are already on the rise, is that the obedience they once enjoyed just a few short months ago will be in short supply. Just when they need it the most.

The question is, what happens then? The UK issued new restrictions just yesterday, which gives the police special powers to break up any groups of more than six people, and fine individuals up to £3,200 for breaking the new rules. They also have plans to introduce 'Covid Wardens' - essentially, power-hungry busybodies who have the potential to create a lot of animosity with their new-found powers. We are already seeing videos online of things like a man innocently sitting on a train, being set-upon by an over-zealous 'special constable' for not wearing a mask. Scenes you'd expect to see in mush less democratic countries than the UK.

So what happens when people refuse to abide by the new laws en mass? How far are governments willing to go to enforce new restrictions? How far down the authoritarian rabbit-hole are democratically elected governments prepared to push it?

It'll be an interesting winter...
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Anthony's Weiner »

monomial wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 2:15 pm
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 11:24 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:55 am
Anthony's Weiner wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:43 am
Kammekor wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 10:31 am

Yes, the number of people dying from CoVid19 will continue to climb over time, but so will the number of people dying from other viruses. The virus is with us, and will stay with us. Infections go up, and infections will go up more when the Northern Hemisphere goes into winter. But the number of infections is a very bad number to base policies on. There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare.
https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/COVIDNet/COVID19_5.html

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... alizations

I don t agree with you and suggest you visit both these cdc sites for a truer picture if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations
Sorry, but those sources don't show a relationship between the number of infected people and the number of hospitalizations.
Please back up your claim with more than dropping two links.
I wonder why you offer no evidence that "There seems no relation between the number of recorded infections and the strain on healthcare."

Both sites clearly show the number of people hospitalzed with Covi19. A simple Google search of the number of people contracting Covid19 would show even the most myopic of us te relationship. I prefaced my suggestion with the prevision "if you really want to see the relationship between number of cases and number of hospitalizations". Tha adage "You can lead a horse to water but you can t make him drink" comes to mind
The answer to your question is that he posted an easy to see graph that clearly demonstrated his position. If you are going to simply post links, and don't have a nice visual, then please tell us what the R value is (the correlation coefficient) for your data sets between infections and hospitalizations. If you don't have a visual that makes it obvious at a glance, that is the next best thing.

Nobody has the time or inclination to do a research project to decide whether your position is valid or not. I have no idea what is in your links. I'm too busy to check. And posting the links is meaningless if you aren't going to summarize what is in them.

If you would like to justify your position with real data, then please make it easy for all of us to agree with you. The problem is you have not led any horses to water. You have only provided a map that requires us to trek 50 miles over rugged terrain to reach water...maybe. You should not be surprised there are no horses drinking. You need to actually do the leading first.
" I'm too busy to check." but not too busy to write 181 words plus quoting Kammekor when a simple ditto would have been suffice. Or even simpler one could give his post positive karma. LOL If i can find the R value written in crayon, I will pm you until then why not just use the ignore button. I
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

Post by Kammekor »

xandreu wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 4:15 pm When this all started, most people in most countries were quite happy to follow the instructions and abide by the restrictions such as lock-down given by their respective governments. Everyone was scared. Nobody knew how this was going to play out. People were genuinely frightened and there was some acceptance that governments didn't quite know what they were doing. It made sense to most people that we shut ourselves away until those in charge had enough data to start making more informed decisions.

We're now eight months or so down the line and a lot has changed. Many of those who had accepted that catching the virus was inevitable have found that it wasn't quite as inevitable as they first thought. While it remains a highly contagious disease, the fact is that the majority have still not become infected. And the overwhelming majority of those who have been infected, have come off largely unscathed. This has, understandably, led many to relax their guard and in most cases, not only ignore the instructions and restrictions put in place, but to view them with a large dose of contempt.

The fact that there have been so many mixed, confusing and difficult to understand messages from governments has not helped at all. When I say 'difficult to understand', I don't mean the instructions are difficult to understand, I mean the logic behind them has been so contradictory, people have lost all faith in what they're being told.

The problem governments will have now, as the northern hemisphere enters autumn and winter, and cases are already on the rise, is that the obedience they once enjoyed just a few short months ago will be in short supply. Just when they need it the most.

The question is, what happens then? The UK issued new restrictions just yesterday, which gives the police special powers to break up any groups of more than six people, and fine individuals up to £3,200 for breaking the new rules. They also have plans to introduce 'Covid Wardens' - essentially, power-hungry busybodies who have the potential to create a lot of animosity with their new-found powers. We are already seeing videos online of things like a man innocently sitting on a train, being set-upon by an over-zealous 'special constable' for not wearing a mask. Scenes you'd expect to see in mush less democratic countries than the UK.

So what happens when people refuse to abide by the new laws en mass? How far are governments willing to go to enforce new restrictions? How far down the authoritarian rabbit-hole are democratically elected governments prepared to push it?

It'll be an interesting winter...
Yes, it will be an interesting winter.

But my question still stands, measured infections are on the rise, at least in the Netherlands, and hospitalizations don't follow the trend. So why all the measures then?

I understand nobody in government wants to get the blame for deaths, but the path chosen now receives a lot of critisism too. Some people specializing in health state more lives are lost by the measures than are saved, and economies are drowning. State debts have exploded. I'm no expert, but I see 'infections' explode, while hospitalizations don't seem to follow trend.

Just look at the graphs I posted. Source: Dutch government.

So I'm confused, and I have been for 2-3 months now. Being infected doesn't seem to imply a (major) health problem anymore. And wasn't it all about "flattening the curve"? The curve has been flat for months, yet still....
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Re: Europe relapsing back into a Covd-19 nightmare?

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newkidontheblock wrote: Thu Sep 10, 2020 12:57 pm
Kammekor wrote:But nowhere to be found is the total number of people testing positive for the virus.
The problem is determining those infectious = can spread the virus, from infected = exposed to the virus. Depending on the test and individual, positive exposure to the virus can last weeks to months.

At the beginning, all the infected were infectious. Large numbers were overwhelming the health care system. Now the infected aren’t necessarily infectious. Also, social distancing, masks, gloves, lockdown, etc., has lowered the number of infectious. And finally the health care system has evolved as well. The initial wave that were sick were critically ill and remained so for a long time, which meant less and less capacity to deal with new cases.

The next challenge will be all those recovered but with continuing health problems afterwards.
NKOTB:
You're absolutely right, the aftermath will be a huge problem!
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