It was going so well. 1.3471 (my target to buy some was 1.35) and then it all started to go wrong.

The 'will they - won't they' game of brinkmanship on fishing and state aid suddenly got very serious over the weekend with interviews by chief negotiators about not compromising and culminated yesterday with a government minister admitting at the dispatch box that they were going to break international law regarding the withdrawal agreement.

The remarkable admission by Brandon Lewis, secretary of state for Northern Ireland, followed the resignation of the most senior legal civil servant and has raised questions over the future of justice secretary, Robert Buckland, and attorney general, Suella Braverman, both of whom have taken oaths to uphold the rule of law.

The markets took a very dim view of this and today the £ has lost 2c in the last 24 hours and has broken back down below 1.30.

I believe a deal will be done. Fishing is less than a £700 million industry (on a £2 Trillion economy) and should not be allowed to scupper things. State aid is a bigger problem as is Northern Ireland. Is Boris really serious about being prepared to leave with no deal? The markets seem to believe it is possible and they don't like it.

Anyone with a reliable crystal ball, please chime in here.

1 month chart


Today



https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -rule-plan