BANGKOK – Thailand’s relative success in containing Covid-19 is being overshadowed as the pandemic’s impact on the kingdom’s devastated economy becomes more glaringly apparent.

Since the pandemic hit in March, 70% of Thailand’s national workforce has seen their average monthly income decline by 47%, 11% of micro and small businesses are verging on permanent closure and 75% of small tourism-related businesses have had their revenues decline by at least three-quarters.

Thailand’s GDP is forecast to contract 8-10% this year, before recovering to 4-5% growth in 2021. Real GDP is not expected to reach its pre-Covid level until 2023, according to the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI), a Bangkok-based independent think tank.

Authorities have indicated that Thailand could remain closed to international tourism until next year, with earlier plans to create “tourism bubbles” with countries that have likewise successfully controlled the virus.

That means hotels, travel agencies and related tour services will miss out on the country’s traditional revenue-generating November-January peak season. The government’s guarded approach is raising grumbles among tourism operators.

“Thailand is now being run by doctors who are overly cautious,” said Luzi Matzig, chairman of Asian Trails Group and five-decade veteran in Thailand’s tourism business. “It’s as if the Ministry of Transport were to say now we have to lower the speed on highways to zero so we can have zero accidents.”