The Inevitable and forthcoming Lock-Down

John Bingham · Post by **John Bingham** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:34 pm

The economy is tanking whether there is a lock down or not, there are too many external factors in play.

Phnom Poon · Post by **Phnom Poon** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 6:51 pm

starkmonster wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:53 am game theory perspective.

lol
sometimes an aspect of reality can be deeply illuminated by a simple model
other times, it's just gratuitous mathelization
nash himself came to admit the limitations as applied to human affairs

it's rather obvious that in a vacuum, the only political choice is lockdown
but there are plenty of other forces at work

unfortunately for cambodia some of them align with implementing a lockdown even if it may be unnecessary
if official case numbers can be believed

starkmonster · Post by **starkmonster** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:50 pm

The most important part of a SIR model or any funnel metric is the transition rate from one state to the next. So I agree with what you are saying if we are talking about colder northerly climates that were experiencing 35% daily growth rates on all metrics before any non-clinical interventions were put in place.

A 35% daily increase will turn 100 into around 50,000 in 21 days. Then with social distancing measures in place they dropped to 22% (100 -> 6500 in 14 days), then with full lock down they are tracking at around 14% (100 -> 1600 in 21 days) until household transmission runs its course.

However almost all the countries in the region have been tracking at sub 14% and more recently sub 10% before having any serious non-clinical interventions in place:

Phnom Poon · Post by **Phnom Poon** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:05 pm

i'm not saying anything other than game theory is way too simplistic to apply here
except to highlight the simple and obvious

regarding your graph, it could be very interesting, but then could also be
garbage in
garbage out

sometimes you have to exercise judgement

404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:56 pm

monomial wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 4:23 pm Interesting, but your numerical values are completely wrong.

All of the factors you gave are valid points, and many more should be taken into account, like the need for HS to take out the opposition.

jah steu · Post by **jah steu** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:32 am

404FreedomNotFound wrote: All of the factors you gave are valid points, and many more should be taken into account, like the need for HS to take out the opposition.

What opposition? Who in opposition is being critical about the government’s actions? There’s no credible opposition left.

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404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:43 am

jah steu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:32 am What opposition? Who in opposition is being critical about the government’s actions? There’s no credible opposition left.

You most likely know more than me on the subject, I am far from being knowledgeable on the subject.
It is just the impression I got that HS still needed to finish them off for good, due to the whole debacle around the EBA, and the whole thing with the opposition leader saying they would return to cambodia etc last year, coupled with the latest opposition crackdown amidst the whole coronavirus events that I've heard of. Sam raimi still lives and has the support of the USA and the EU as far as I know, he also has a long arm, and links to rich families.
It is clear that the official opposition has been destroyed, but they still have money, leaders abroad, and their rhetoric is omnipresent on khmer facebook as far as I know.
But once against I know very little on this, and my level of certitude on all those claims is low.

John Bingham · Post by **John Bingham** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:20 am

It's Sam Rainsy, and he has not got any money compared to the incumbent powers, nor does he have the support you claim. You don't know what you're talking about so how about you can it with the BS?

404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:06 am

John Bingham wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:20 am You don't know what you're talking about so how about you can it with the BS?

clutchcargo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:55 pm CEO is a discussion forum and members don't necessarily have to prove statistically or beyond doubt before posting and we don't want to constrain members from posting freely.
[One should not] imply that members shouldn't comment unless they are properly qualified.
I see a touch of arrogance that is not helpful to healthy discussion on CEO.

Sorry to quote you clutchcargo, those are some points that clutch made to me which I agree with 100% and that I believe stemmed from a misunderstanding on this very same thread.
I find them incredibly fitting to your comment John.

Post by **Username Taken** » Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:33 am

404FreedomNotFound wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:06 am
John Bingham wrote: ↑Sun Apr 05, 2020 3:20 am You don't know what you're talking about so how about you can it with the BS?

clutchcargo wrote: ↑Thu Apr 02, 2020 2:55 pm CEO is a discussion forum and members don't necessarily have to prove statistically or beyond doubt before posting and we don't want to constrain members from posting freely.
[One should not] imply that members shouldn't comment unless they are properly qualified.
I see a touch of arrogance that is not helpful to healthy discussion on CEO.
Sorry to quote you clutchcargo, those are some points that clutch made to me which I agree with 100% and that I believe stemmed from a misunderstanding on this very same thread.
I find them incredibly fitting to your comment John.

You can quote clutchcargo all you like, but that still doesn't make it right to start making up mitty-esque like stories just for the sake of increasing your post count.
Making suggestions that the opposition still needs to be 'finished off' could very well land you in some hot water. (My understanding is that the Interior Ministry does read this and other fora. Making up non-factual stories, aka fake news is frowned upon in this part of the world).

Watch what you say.

The Inevitable and forthcoming Lock-Down

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The Inevitable and forthcoming Lock-Down

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