willyhilly wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:06 pm Not sure why this hasn’t been commented on but someone on twitter says it’s all gone to shit after the passenger tested positive. People stuck on the ship, hundreds isolated in PP hotels, no transit through Malaysia and MAS not flying people out anymore. Is this true?

Jack.R. wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 2:20 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 1:07 pm On the cruise ship locked at Yokohama now 355 passengers (out of 3,700 on board) are infected. Being an interesting case outside of China this paints an extremely grim picture about what must be going on in China.

Just imagine what would happen if 10% of the people in
Phnom Penh would become infected? A run for the hills, revolution, exodus to Thailand?

With 200.000 infected that means around 45.000 requiring intensive care for which Cambodia has less than 1000 ICU beds available.
Which will mean that probably places like the new stadiums will have to be turned into places where you get quarantined without ICU, with the terrible sanitation we can expect lots of other airborne diseases to spread among the quarantined.
Assuming that somehow the 200.000 is the maximum amount of infected with the spread being contained (unlikely) the death rate will be around:
1% for the mild cases and 35% ~ 40% of the intensive care patients that don't get an ICU. 16% for the lucky sever cases which get international standard ICU.

So around 20.000 dead.

But if this runs rampant I strongly doubt it will only affect 10% of PP especially considering Khmer eating habits.

So most likely you will see all other countries closing the borders (maybe not China), Cambodia begging China for help (if they are in a better situation by then they might be able to, otherwise tough luck), Phnom Penh shutdown, restaurants and many hotels on rental contracts going bankrupt, hospitals unable to cope with the cases and generally people freaking out.
If it begins to spread into schools you might see many schools suffering greatly economically, especially those that charge by the month.


Also for those that say that you survive and get immune, this isn't a bacteria it's a coronavirus, like the flu you can get it several times, as they continually mutate slightly which is why flu vaccination isn't very effective. Cases of re-infection have just been proved in China, you can find scholarly articles on it.
Also it doesn't only affect the lungs but also the kidney and testicles with permanent damage due to the presence of Ace-2 receptors in them which is what the virus currently targets.

General shit show will ensure if the virus spreads rapidly and if big daddy China cannot help.
I totally see Khmer hospital staff that have paid for their job to just don't show up to work especially if they don't have enough equipment.

If it goes rampant in Cambodia and get a maximum of 70% of the population (assuming 10% somehow naturally immune, 15% too isolated to infect, 5% just lucky) and that it does at least 3 rounds before we come up with some serious cure/vaccine it could kill 1.5 to 2.5 millions in around 6 seasons.

This is fully based on available data from internationally recognized sources.

So we have the limited infection scenario of 200k in PP and negligible infected in the rest of the country followed by a very successful containment of 20k ~ 25k casualties and some serious economic damage.
And the (almost) worst case scenario that it kills enough people to bring the country to his knees but it should be slow enough not to go into anarchy.

Absolute worst case scenario is that it turns endemic and Cambodian will just have to live with losing 3% - 4% of the population to it each year and have 0 tourism.

On the posirive side the whore mongers might be able to get the prices they used to get 20 years ago once again if one the worst case scenarios becomes a reality.

Big'n wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:13 pm

How many people were infected?

How many people will be affected by the R0 factor?

Get ready, it's a ticking time bomb.

Kammekor wrote:

Big'n wrote: ↑Sun Feb 16, 2020 4:13 pm

How many people were infected?

How many people will be affected by the R0 factor?

Get ready, it's a ticking time bomb.

R0 means zero infected here. Probably a lab error, according to the Cambodian Ministry of Health.