TOG wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:25 pm Tesla is not the be all and end all of electric cars. Tesla (IMHO) is a con artist. Intelligent? Yes. But a con artist never the less.

Advances in battery technology are in hyper drive. Already there are many battery powered aircraft and I think that in the next 10 years, you will see a quantum jump in performance from the new generation of batteries that are coming in. The elephant in the room will still be the need to charge these batteries and that will require massive infrastructure changes. A nice employment future for those who may have been thinking about coal mining or north sea oil exploration.

I personally don't understand how commercial vehicles like lorries, buses and aircraft are going to manage on batteries, even at double the energy density, which I can't see happening in itself. There's a lot of talk on combinations of batteries that seem promising on paper but fail to impress in the real world and at least to me as a layperson who built electric cars as a hobby, seems like dead end for anything more than personal transportation and maybe some very short range ultralight aircraft.

Now I'm all for clean personal transportation (talking particulate emissions vs. carbon dioxide), and I'm not opposed to largely cut production of liquid fuels in favour of full or partial EVs as a daily driver as I think it will solve a lot of respiratory issues in congested cities...but I can't see liquid fuels leaving anytime soon simply because of the energy richness inherent to it...unless we develop little mini uranium reactors for our aeroplanes and the like.

The American fund manager that employs Theresa May's husband has said that it intends to use market uncertainty after Brexit as a buying opportunity.
Anybody still think the tories are pushing Brexit though for the benefit of ordinary people ???.
Always money to be made in times of uncertainty....... just ask our Nigel........ and Togs love child J R Mogg.

TOG wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:25 pm Advances in battery technology are in hyper drive. Already there are many battery powered aircraft and I think that in the next 10 years, you will see a quantum jump in performance <cut>

Yes, we call them drones.

Do you have any idea about the energy density of battery versus for instance kerosene?

For a plane to carry the same amount of energy (at sea level, not even talking about loss off energy in batteries due to temperature drops at high altitudes) at this time a plane should carry 23-46 times the amount of weight of batteries to bring the same amount of energy as kerosene.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

That means before planes will be using batteries they have to increase the amount of energy stored in a battery 23-46 times without any increase in weight and increase the reliability at the same time, because batteries have the tendency to become unstable (self igniting) under certain conditions.

More than a hyperdrive needed to achieve that.

JerryCan wrote:I personally don't understand how commercial vehicles like lorries, buses and aircraft are going to manage on batteries, even at double the energy density,

You have to look beyond the Flintstones mentality
You may be right about aircraft, except trainers, which make perfect sense as electric, but buses are already going electric
Long haul trucks will be problematic until there is charging infrastructure
When the charging stations are there, and especially when they drive themselves, who cares?
And they can be much cheaper
The current practice of a car in the driveway and an inconvenient weekly top-up at the gas station, or trucks setting out fully-fueled from company depots, etc, derives from the existing technology
Not vice versa

Kammekor wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:20 pm For a plane to carry the same amount of energy (at sea level, not even talking about loss off energy in batteries due to temperature drops at high altitudes) at this time a plane should carry 23-46 times the amount of weight of batteries to bring the same amount of energy as kerosene.

Just to add, an electric motor made to run at optimum efficiency can see a constant 90% efficiency safely while at best we're talking 35-40% from the best turbofans of today. Although that only means to match kerosene's energy density you'd only need a little less than half of what you're talking...which is still immense.

Phnom Poon wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:32 pm
When the charging stations are there, and especially when they drive themselves, who cares?
The current practice of a car in the driveway and an inconvenient weekly top-up at the gas station, or trucks setting out fully-fueled from company depots etc, derives from the existing technology
Not vice versa

Forgive me if I just don't see the driverless car thing happening any time soon. I know there's impressive achievements, but even trains have human operators behind them because there are certain things a computer just can't do, unless it is self intelligent meaning sentient...

As for larger vehicles, another issue however is the fact that the battery itself is one expensive container, as well as being toxic and difficult to remanufacture. Cost of course will go down yes, but even at very high levels of output of already conventional batteries I just don't see that happening quickly either. Even with lead acid recycling centres (which are much easier to produce than more exotic materials like Li-Ion batteries, you're still paying in the ten thousands for a useable pack, and that's maybe a 40-50 kwh pack which would be empty in a matter of a few dozen miles on a lorry. If you scale it up to a 500 kwh pack you're looking at hundreds of thousands of dollars not including the price of electricity.

Then of course you need the added infrastructure of electricity generation demands.

Not saying it can't be done, but I'm skeptical that at our current state of technology and understanding of it coming as fast as a lot of fans would say, and I say this as someone who used to daily drive an electric vehicle, back when they weren't popular. It just seems way too far away to be viable, at least to me as a casual EV enthusiast.

JerryCan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:59 pm

Kammekor wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:20 pm For a plane to carry the same amount of energy (at sea level, not even talking about loss off energy in batteries due to temperature drops at high altitudes) at this time a plane should carry 23-46 times the amount of weight of batteries to bring the same amount of energy as kerosene.

Just to add, an electric motor made to run at optimum efficiency can see a constant 90% efficiency safely while at best we're talking 35-40% from the best turbofans of today. Although that only means to match kerosene's energy density you'd only need a little less than half of what you're talking...which is still immense.

True, but turbofans are just 5-10% of the market. Most planes don't use turbofans because the amount of power per engine is limited, too limited for large heavy (long distance) planes. So they use jet engines. Those benefit of high power combined with extremely low air-resistance at high altitudes, but the conditions up there are too bare for batteries. So maybe there will be niche market in aviation for batteries, but i don't see batteries taking over kerosene anytime soon.

Technically most planes (commercial aviation) do use turbofan jet engines. I think you confused a turbofan for a prop engine.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 8:20 pm

TOG wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:25 pm Advances in battery technology are in hyper drive. Already there are many battery powered aircraft and I think that in the next 10 years, you will see a quantum jump in performance <cut>

Yes, we call them drones.

Do you have any idea about the energy density of battery versus for instance kerosene?

For a plane to carry the same amount of energy (at sea level, not even talking about loss off energy in batteries due to temperature drops at high altitudes) at this time a plane should carry 23-46 times the amount of weight of batteries to bring the same amount of energy as kerosene.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density

That means before planes will be using batteries they have to increase the amount of energy stored in a battery 23-46 times without any increase in weight and increase the reliability at the same time, because batteries have the tendency to become unstable (self igniting) under certain conditions.

More than a hyperdrive needed to achieve that.

You should really research before showing your ignorance on this subject.

Already, flight schools are using electric powered planes for take off and landing training. A 2 seater has about a 1 hour endurance level and that is with bog standard Lithium ion batteries. The next generation of aluminium air batteries already have a 30% to 40% greater capacity weight for weight than Li-ion. Already 1st stage graphene based batteries are demonstrating a 500% increase in capacity weight for weight over Li-ion.

Change your aspect on travel and look at the safest plane in the sky, a Gyro copter. Three seater Gyros are capable of up to 500 miles on a single charge with an electric motor. They can take off and land on a sixpence (or a dime for our Amrican cousins) and again, this is with bog standard Li-ion batteries.

Start boning up on technology beacause Phnom Poon is correct, you have a Flintstone mentality. And of course, don't rely on Wikipedia for information. Also, Graphene based batteries are non flammable.

JerryCan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:13 pm Technically most planes (commercial aviation) do use turbofan jet engines. I think you confused a turbofan for a prop engine.

To make it simple for Kammekor to understand.

A conventional jet engine has the blades enclosed.

A Turbo prop engine has the blades exposed.

Kammekor was thinking about Piston engine planes.

TOG wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:55 pm

JUDGEDREDD wrote: ↑Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:39 pm Not just your job, the jobs and livelihoods of many many people.

Well done for that, it'll be so worth it once we "tayk bk r cuntrey" and show the rest of the world just how quiet 'Rule Britannia' plays these days.

And Project Fear raises it's head yet again.

Ahh a buzzword, congrats!