My prediction is there is going to be a big gap in the labour supply market in Thailand especially in the lower class manufacturing and farming and those employers will have to pay a higher monthly salary from now on to attract [ Thai ] workers, which will lead to higher prices, and higher inflation .

Last night while dropping off my laundry close to riverside a group of young women dressed like garment workers came up to me pleading for money...I thought they were garbage collectors and I said in Khmer asking them if thats what they were...they kept saying Thailand over and over. It didn't dawn on me till like an hour later who they were. Really said they are just walking around aimless lee near old market.

They were sexy as hell also.

Duncan wrote:My prediction is there is going to be a big gap in the labour supply market in Thailand especially in the lower class manufacturing and farming and those employers will have to pay a higher monthly salary from now on to attract [ Thai ] workers, which will lead to higher prices, and higher inflation .

I suspect you're right Duncan but only if there is a problem with those workers leaving obtaining the necessary papers to return.I've no idea what and how long the process is but I think it would be economic suicide if this is not just a legitimising exercise. I worked in a business that required large numbers of contact labour at relatively short notice and even 18 months ago it was getting extremely difficult to source labour close to home. We were having to go to agents further up country and our pay rates were considerably higher than the minimum wage levels. Inflation has already been on the rise here for some time and if it gets worse I can forsee further economic strains.

LTO wrote: I don't know if any of it is true, but the report has been circulating for a couple days now. And it's not too difficult to believe given the Thai penchant for gunning down Cambodians (usually illegal loggers) illegally crossing into Thailand.

Personally I agree with PhuketRichard's position that a military takeover was necessary. That said, I think that it is likely that Reports of targeting and harassing immigrant labor are probably accurate. The old "irrational Khmers will repeat any unfounded rumor" gets a little tired.

Thailand does have a lower end labor shortage but it is not nearly as bad as many state. The real issue has been giving "Elite" business owners (often but not always Thaskin Cronies) access to low cost labor at levels Thais find unappealing. By removing this "privilege" Thai Business will be forced to Employ Thai labor instead ---- at fair local market wages --- thus enhancing the image of the Junta among working class Thais.

Unfortunately, as is usually the case, it is the Poor (Mostly from Cambodia and Myanmar) that will suffer the most from all the political maneuvering.

As much as the coup was needed ---- to buy into all their propaganda hook, line, and sinker is very naive.

Duncan wrote:My prediction is there is going to be a big gap in the labour supply market in Thailand especially in the lower class manufacturing and farming and those employers will have to pay a higher monthly salary from now on to attract [ Thai ] workers, which will lead to higher prices, and higher inflation .

Todays post says ,,Thai rice prices have increased to a 3 month high.We are now facing labour shortages and tight supplies which will boost prices short term.
As many as 70 % of the workers involved in loading grain at warehouses and moving it to vessels have left the country.
Only about 500 tonnes of rice a day can be loaded now , compared with 2,000 - 3000 tonnes normally.

phuketrichard wrote:

CHANTHABURI, June 19 -- The problem of departing Cambodian workers flocking back to their homeland due to the rumour that the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) planned a crackdown on foreign workers has now eased.

The situation at the Thai-Cambodian border in Chanthaburi province, both at the permanent Thai-Cambodian checkpoint at Pong Nam Ron district and the temporary border crossing at Soi Dao district has returned to normal.

A large group of Cambodians have been waiting to cross the border to the Thai side since early today to purchase consumer goods and to work.

The border crossings have seen a week of foreign labourers leaving the country, as many Cambodian workers feared they would be expelled from Thailand by the ruling military junta.

Nonetheless, Chanthaburi Thai-Cambodian Border Tourism and Trade Association vice-chairman Sombat Jeungtrakul said the labourers coming back to Thailand today are mostly workers who returned home to legalise their documents to be able to work legally in Thailand.

Mr Sombat said the minimum wage in Thailand is three times higher than in Cambodia, attracting many Khmers to return to Thailand to seek employment. (MCOT online news

)

Unfortunately, as is usually the case, it is the Poor (Mostly from Cambodia and Myanmar) that will suffer the most from all the political maneuvering.

I don't think the poor migrant workers will suffer one bit an in fact they will be better off.
They will return to Thailand, LEGAL which means they cant be scammed or cheated. They will have full medical insurance as well. Thailand will raise there wages after this latest exodus so they will be making almost 4x the min in Cambodia.

Down here in the south no one left that i have seen, IT was mostly up in ESSAN and samut prakan ( fishing industry) area.

BUT dont get me wrong. the future it still uncertain as Thailand is still under martial law an no sign of that being lifted.

As long as the Cambodian government has no concern about their citizens working abroad and well being, dont expect other countries to.

Thai Junta's Censorship Extends Beyond the Kingdom
http://www.prachatai.com/english/node/4060

" the Thai embassy in London put pressure on SOAS’s Thai Society to cancel the even "

" the Thai ambassador to the United Kingdom has now himself been “summoned” by the junta. "

" Such demands create a chilling effect in Thai communities outside Thailand. "

And the obvious
Thailand’s military coup has plunged the country back into a time-warp. The coup emerges from a very deep and persistent socio-political crisis, now a decade old. The last time the military seized power, in 2006, it utterly failed to resolve this crisis: despite rigging the constitution, it could not exclude from power the “red-shirt” forces represented by Pheu Thai (formerly Thai Rak Thai and the People’s Power Party). Instead, when democracy was restored, these forces were re-elected, as they have been at every election since 2001. The same held when the military engineered a change of government in 2008: the new regime could not last, and ended up killing around 90 anti-government protestors in a violent crackdown in 2010.