What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

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cptrelentless
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by cptrelentless »

hunter8 wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:06 pm The world is entering a recession while the usual tools of central banks to fight it are already exhausted by the previous recession. Expect at least one lost decade of economic growth on a worldwide scale. Private investments scale down in this scary environment, people try to save not spend; instead central banks launch massive quantitative easing campaigns to fill the void aka money printing resulting in double digit inflation. Doom and gloomish? Yes. But it happened many times before and there was a narrow escape in 2009.

Asian countries will have to develop domestic markets more, rely less on the West’s purchasing power. They will need to establish an asian reserve currency too for trading between themselves as the inflow of weakened western currencies dwindles. Interesting times ahead.
Nobody in the EU is allowed double-digit inflation. The Fed certainly wouldn't allow inflation to reach that high, either. Also, if there is double-digit inflation why would people save not spend? If the interest rates don't cover inflation the trend would be to spend the cash, not save, for what should be obvious reasons. Your tinfoil hat is picking up Radio 2 and it's interfering with your mind-control.
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Phnom Poon
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by Phnom Poon »

the high inflation is a deliberate attempt to force people to spend
even so, it's often spent on inflation-proof assets, not consumption or investment in growth
'stagflation', or even 'shrinkflation' this time

.

monstra mihi bona!
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by hunter8 »

cptrelentless wrote: Fri Dec 06, 2019 4:09 pm
hunter8 wrote: Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:06 pm The world is entering a recession while the usual tools of central banks to fight it are already exhausted by the previous recession. Expect at least one lost decade of economic growth on a worldwide scale. Private investments scale down in this scary environment, people try to save not spend; instead central banks launch massive quantitative easing campaigns to fill the void aka money printing resulting in double digit inflation. Doom and gloomish? Yes. But it happened many times before and there was a narrow escape in 2009.

Asian countries will have to develop domestic markets more, rely less on the West’s purchasing power. They will need to establish an asian reserve currency too for trading between themselves as the inflow of weakened western currencies dwindles. Interesting times ahead.
Nobody in the EU is allowed double-digit inflation. The Fed certainly wouldn't allow inflation to reach that high, either. Also, if there is double-digit inflation why would people save not spend? If the interest rates don't cover inflation the trend would be to spend the cash, not save, for what should be obvious reasons. Your tinfoil hat is picking up Radio 2 and it's interfering with your mind-control.
The choice between allowing double-digit inflation through money printing or negative real economic growth. Which one will be preferred?

There is a gap of a few years between people saving money and double-digit inflation. After price inflation has hit real bad, you are correct, people will be spending more to get rid of depreciating currency. Before that they will be saving money for a few years which is a blow to the consumption based economies.

Tinfoil hats build bunkers and buy guns to fight post apocalypses zombies. The kind of recession I talk about happened times and times before. That includes western countries in the 20th century.
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by tuktuk »

I imagine that it will be looking like China town. I for one welcome our new triad overlords. :bow:
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by xandreu »

I predict that the wealth divide will be the biggest change. There is an ever growing middle class here that will continue to grow exponentially , Chinese investment will continue to pour into the country and on the surface, Cambodia will be transformed into a relatively modern almost developed country, but very little will be done for those at the bottom, and for many of those, the poverty levels will remain the same. They will just be pushed further out of sight and out of mind.
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

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Image
orussey98
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by orussey98 »

not like Rwanda.
Same situation , civil war and genocide.


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SternAAlbifrons
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by SternAAlbifrons »

DaveG wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:37 am Image
Scoff. Fake photo.
The road dividers would have survived.
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by CEOCambodiaNews »

Cambodia and the great powers
In the second installment in our eight-week partnership with Future Forum looking at Cambodia in the decades to come, we examine the Kingdom's attempts to navigate the choppy waters of great power politics that threatens to submerge its domestic affairs and jeopardise its future

WHY WE WROTE THIS: Because if Cambodia is to thrive in 2040, it needs to establish its role in the international sphere
Simon Roughneen
December 11, 2019
Striding across the verandah of his Phnom Penh home on November 11, Cambodia’s embattled opposition leader Kem Sokha stuck out a hand towards US Ambassador W. Patrick Murphy, the two men sharing a few inaudible pleasantries during their quick grip-and-grin after Murphy’s official car had edged through Sokha’s front gate.

Back at the doorway an hour later, Sokha apologised to the waiting media for not commenting. Though a local court freed him from house arrest the weekend before, he remains barred from politics due to treason charges, so was reluctant to discuss his meeting with Murphy.

Sokha’s plight, it seems, is to be a pawn in the Cambodian government’s game with the big powers it must do business with – his release likely an attempt by nervous authorities to gainsay any European Union (EU) move to cut the country’s preferential market access, known as “Everything But Arms (EBA)”, to the 28-member bloc.

In 2018, Cambodia’s exports to the EU were worth 5.4 billion euros (US$5.94billion), going by European Commission figures, with around a third of Cambodia’s US$9.5billion total of garment and footwear exports going to the EU.
Kem Sokha pictured ahead of his meeting with U.S. Ambassador W. Patrick Murphy (L) on Nov. 11 2019. Photo: Simon Roughneen
Kem Sokha pictured ahead of his meeting with US Ambassador W. Patrick Murphy (L) on 11 November 2019. Photo: Simon Roughneen

The possible revoking of the EBA privileges – according to the Commission, one of the three main EU bodies – is due to the deteriorating human rights situation in Cambodia over the two years since Sokha was arrested, accused of conspiring with the US to foment a “colour revolution” to unseat the near four-decade rule of Prime Minister HE.

Despite Sokha being freed from house arrest a month ago, it was later announced that he will face trial on January 15, a decision that is unlikely to bolster Cambodia’s case for avoiding sanctions.
Full article: https://southeastasiaglobe.com/cambodia ... rratic-us/
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Anchor Moy
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Re: What will Cambodia look like in two decades.

Post by Anchor Moy »

I missed this first time around.
Cambodia in 2040: The whole series of articles makes interesting reading.
https://southeastasiaglobe.com/campaign/future-forum/
About Future Forum

Future Forum (FF) is an independent think tank that focuses on research, analysis and public policy, finding solution-focused answers to an identified ‘policy gap’ in Cambodia.

Founded by Ou Virak in 2015, FF uses its research to help decision-makers with detailed, specific and constructive policy issues to Cambodia’s issues. FF’s approach is to dig deep with its research, applying an analytical approach that highlights trends and produces sound policy recommendations to help shape Cambodia’s policy discourse.

FF has partnered with the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung organisation to produce an edited volume series examining socio-economic development in the Kingdom. Ranging from economic development and foreign relations and governance, to culture and society, this book brings together a collection of experts, looking at various potential scenarios that Cambodia is likely to confront in 2040.
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