The Inevitable and forthcoming Lock-Down

Cruisemonkey · Post by **Cruisemonkey** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 7:28 am

hanno wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 5:39 am I live in Vietnam and where I live, all shops, restaurants, and bars are closed. Outdoor exercise is not allowed and I have been stopped twice this week and asked where I was going. Face masks are compulsory and no more than 2 people are allowed to be together at any one time.

I do not know how it is enforced elsewhere as I cannot leave as all public transport has been suspended. (Is that lock-down enough for you?) However, as per the PM’s directive, this is how it is supposed to be everywhere. So, instead of insulting me, just take this as my perspective from where I live (and yes, I live in Vietnam).

Sorry for the insult (I was rash), but in Vietnam we are not in a state of lockdown (yet). It may be semantics but "lockdown" inherently implies no movement between defined geographical areas, be they: buildings, municipalities (wards), cities, provinces etc. We have not reach that point yet. While it is true public transportation has been shut down, there are still domestic and international flights operating. You can drive to the airport.

Still allowed to operate: manufacturing establishment, factory; traffic construction & construction; essential goods and servicing establishment (such as: food, supply, medicine; oil & gas; electricity; material); establishment of education, bank, treasury, other business directly serving banking and other corporate business (such as notary, lawyer, vehicle testing center; guaranteed transaction registration office etc.) securities, post office, telecommunication, supporting service for transportation, export and importation, medical check & treatment, funeral services.

The PM has instructed everyone to practice "social distancing":
- Individual citizen are to stay home, refrain from going out, except for necessary cases:
a) Purchasing food and supplies, medicines and other essential goods and services;
b) Emergency such as: emergency services, medical treatment; natural disaster, fire etc.;
c) Working at state offices & units, army, diplomatic agency & at the essential business Establishment.

Vietnam is one step away from a lockdown... but we're not there yet.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:04 am

newkidontheblock wrote: ↑Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:42 pm
Kammekor wrote:With temperatures hitting 39-40 degrees C this afternoon in the mountainous Northeast I guess the virus has difficulty spreading. The air currently is as hot as a febrile human body.

Add the amount of UV light to that and you have a very hostile environment for viruses in droplets and on particles, except for air conditioned areas.
Temperatures need to be 60-70 degrees C (for 30 minutes) needed to kill the virus. No testing has been done at 30-40 degrees C.

Only UV C light kills the virus. The majority of light is UV A and B. UV C is usually filtered.

And if this was all true, why aren’t countries in the same latitude (such as Thailand and Vietnam) or even more south (such as Indonesia) reporting lower infection rates than Cambodia?

IMHO, I think it’s testing. Most foreigners will gladly pay for testing. A villager will think, bag of rice, case of beer, or test? Plus just taking the test (never mind a positive result) has serious negative social consequences.

First, I wonder what your sources are. I'm pretty sure the data you refer to applu to the SARS-Cov-1 virus, and not this new one.

But, what you say is what I thought too. I read similar stuff (for SARS-Cov-1). But it simply doesn't match the experiences here in Cambodia.

First case in USA: 20 jan. Widespread, community spread for weeks already, thousands of deaths despite (recent) lock downs.
First case in Cambodia: 27 jan. Limited cases, no reported deaths, despite 10-20 daily flights from China.
First case in Italy: 31 jan. Widespread, community spread since probably February, thousands of deaths despite (long term) lock downs.

I know, if you don't test, you don't see. But still, if there is exponential growth, and if 15% of the infected people need treatment there would have been tens of thousands sick people in Cambodia looking for oxygen now, right? Temples would be running cremations one after another, right? Because let's be honest, beside closing schools nearly three weeks ago the Cambodian government has done hardly anything to contain the virus after the first case was detected. Cambodia is a small country. People travel in crowded buses and vans. I expected the virus to spread like wild fire in dry undergrowth in this country. So I prepared.
And nothing seems to be happening.

I'm no expert on this virus, all I know is the virus has been in Cambodia for nearly 70 days now, and I haven't noticed it, and nobody I know has noticed it, and the medical facilities where I live are simply not overwhelmed. And temples are running as usual, with some cremation services. In other countries, with different climates, the virus has spread widely and

Anxious to hear explanations for this.

404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:15 am

@Kammekor
I know many people on this forum hate me for saying this, but this is a post I've made post409944.html#p408720. In a country like Cambodia where most of the adult population isn't vaccinated against influenza, the spread rate isn't incredibly higher than the flu, nor is it's fatality rate apparently. This explains not only the huge difference between country mortality, but the lack of extreme visible effects here in cambodia despite all experts and simulation agreeing that cambodia should be overrun with the virus. And that people flying out of the country keep being tested positive once they arrive in country with stronger testing capacities.
Doubling or even tripling the number of dead from last year's influenza epidemic as covid-19 adds itself upon it this year would still not be enough to overrun hospitals in a country where people die of disease that can be treated via simple pills cause they lack the money.
The main danger I believe about covid-19 is lack of appropriate medication and vaccine, not the virus itself, which explain how it's impact seems to be important in countries with great health-care, but not so much in countries plagued by curable diseases, and health issue sometime as simple as lack of nutrition or clean water.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:17 am

404FreedomNotFound wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:15 am @Kammekor
I know many people on this forum hate me for saying this, but this is a post I've made post409944.html#p408720. In a country like Cambodia where most of the adult population isn't vaccinated, the spread rate isn't incredibly higher than the flu, nor is it's fatality rate apparently. This explains not only the huge difference between country mortality, but the lack of extreme visible effects here in cambodia despite all experts and simulation agreeing that cambodia should be overrun with the virus. And that people flying out of the country keep being tested positive once they arrive in country with stronger testing capacities.

Most of the adult population isn't vaccinated?
Isn't vaccinated for what?

404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:18 am

Sorry, I edited the post to make my point more clear.

404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:23 am

But with the mass exodus out of phnom penh towards the population most at risk in the rural area which due to their location were initially much less likely to get infected, more and more stories might pop up on social media of people dying with similar symptoms as covid-19 I suspect. A khmer man my wife knew died a couple days ago, he was undergoing treatment in vietnam for a heart disease, and had already pre paid for it. Due to the border being closed and not finding the money to pay for the treatment he needed again here in cambodia, he died. Her grandmother took a loan on her house that she won't be able to pay back. I suspect way more will soon die of the inevitable and forthcoming lock-down, and might make it even harder to see the impact of the virus amidst the economic hardship impact.

jah steu · Post by **jah steu** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:50 am

Kammekor wrote: First case in USA: 20 jan. Widespread, community spread for weeks already, thousands of deaths despite (recent) lock downs.
First case in Cambodia: 27 jan. Limited cases, no reported deaths, despite 10-20 daily flights from China.
First case in Italy: 31 jan. Widespread, community spread since probably February, thousands of deaths despite (long term) lock downs.
I know, if you don't test, you don't see. But still, if there is exponential growth, and if 15% of the infected people need treatment there would have been tens of thousands sick people in Cambodia looking for oxygen now, right? Temples would be running cremations one after another, right? Because let's be honest, beside closing schools nearly three weeks ago the Cambodian government has done hardly anything to contain the virus after the first case was detected. Cambodia is a small country. People travel in crowded buses and vans. I expected the virus to spread like wild fire in dry undergrowth in this country. So I prepared.
And nothing seems to be happening.

I'm no expert on this virus, all I know is the virus has been in Cambodia for nearly 70 days now, and I haven't noticed it, and nobody I know has noticed it, and the medical facilities where I live are simply not overwhelmed. And temples are running as usual, with some cremation services. In other countries, with different climates, the virus has spread widely and

Anxious to hear explanations for this.

This is exactly what puzzles me. There really should be a lot more sick people seeking treatment at hospitals. But as far as I can see, there aren’t.
Yes testing locally has been very limited. I’d guess there are many more cases than 114 as of today.
My theory, which I raised in another thread, was that since the virus has been present in China since November last year, and with the tens of thousands of Chinese visiting Cambodia since then, including on direct flights from Wuhan, that the virus has ALREADY washed through Cambodia.
In late January I, and many others gathering from the responses to my other thread, got very sick with a horrendous cough that lasted two weeks, plus a fever. I’ve never had a cough like that and went to hospital for an x-ray and medication.
Was this a mild case of coronavirus? Without doing an antibody test it’s impossible to know. But it would help explain the strange (but very welcome!) lack of coronavirus cases in Cambodia to date.

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404FreedomNotFound · Post by **404FreedomNotFound** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:56 am

@jah steu I did have in January a very harsh flu, and I did loose taste and smell. All symptoms seems to match, but I do not believe that is enough elements to consider it was indeed covid-19. Taking into account that I live in the capital, the timeframe also fit with the high traffic of chinese people commuting from china, and wuhan itself towards cambodia. At the time I noticed weird stuff in my stools, and took albendazole (an anti parasite), which made me feel better within a couple of days.
At the time, I imputed flu symptoms to a flu, and the other less fitting symptoms to parasites, and concluded the overall symptoms were due to a combination of having both those issue at the same time.

IraHayes · Post by **IraHayes** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:01 am

jah steu wrote: ↑Sat Apr 04, 2020 8:50 am
Kammekor wrote: First case in USA: 20 jan. Widespread, community spread for weeks already, thousands of deaths despite (recent) lock downs.
First case in Cambodia: 27 jan. Limited cases, no reported deaths, despite 10-20 daily flights from China.
First case in Italy: 31 jan. Widespread, community spread since probably February, thousands of deaths despite (long term) lock downs.
I know, if you don't test, you don't see. But still, if there is exponential growth, and if 15% of the infected people need treatment there would have been tens of thousands sick people in Cambodia looking for oxygen now, right? Temples would be running cremations one after another, right? Because let's be honest, beside closing schools nearly three weeks ago the Cambodian government has done hardly anything to contain the virus after the first case was detected. Cambodia is a small country. People travel in crowded buses and vans. I expected the virus to spread like wild fire in dry undergrowth in this country. So I prepared.
And nothing seems to be happening.

I'm no expert on this virus, all I know is the virus has been in Cambodia for nearly 70 days now, and I haven't noticed it, and nobody I know has noticed it, and the medical facilities where I live are simply not overwhelmed. And temples are running as usual, with some cremation services. In other countries, with different climates, the virus has spread widely and

Anxious to hear explanations for this.
This is exactly what puzzles me. There really should be a lot more sick people seeking treatment at hospitals. But as far as I can see, there aren’t.
Yes testing locally has been very limited. I’d guess there are many more cases than 114 as of today.
My theory, which I raised in another thread, was that since the virus has been present in China since November last year, and with the tens of thousands of Chinese visiting Cambodia since then, including on direct flights from Wuhan, that the virus has ALREADY washed through Cambodia.
In late January I, and many others gathering from the responses to my other thread, got very sick with a horrendous cough that lasted two weeks, plus a fever. I’ve never had a cough like that and went to hospital for an x-ray and medication.
Was this a mild case of coronavirus? Without doing an antibody test it’s impossible to know. But it would help explain the strange (but very welcome!) lack of coronavirus cases in Cambodia to date.

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I am in the same camp as Jay Steu. Things don’t add up with regards what is happening in the west and the lack of deaths here. I also believe I had the virus back in Jan Feb but tbh it could well have been just a normal run-of-mill flu and as has been said, without proper testing I will never know. But why is no one dying here? Why are the hospitals not swamped?

jah steu · Post by **jah steu** » Sat Apr 04, 2020 9:04 am

More on topic... many locals seem convinced that a state of emergency will be declared as soon as it has passed through the various stages of law and been signed off by the king or his proxy.
But why? Many businesses have been closed or restricted already, most people are staying at home as much as possible. They are wearing masks when going out. Cases are currently low and not growing exponentially.
How would declaring a state of emergency and/or imposing a complete lockdown improve the situation further?

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