You've got two years before BC drops it's rewards by half, let's see how many squeaky bums there are then. There's very few places left in the world where electricity is cheap enough to mine at the moment.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 5:28 pm

StroppyChops wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:40 pm I actually posted this to chum the waters, so to speak, and was not surprised at the responses - good to see Bubble T declaring his/her bias, although did not do so in the original rebuttal.

Also interesting that there has been little to no response on my original point that the "value" of almost all cryptocurrencies dropped by around 50% in a very small time margin, and it would be horrible to have bought into those falling cryptocurrencies just prior to the bubble bursting.

Almost choked on the level of techno-futurist lingo and thinly veiled adhoms thrown in to the drink the koolaid responses.

The interesting part is nobody really knows what the value of the cryptos will be in the short or medium long run. Personally I believe all current cryptos will go to zero in the long run, because all of them have flaws in their designs, but the 'believers' will disagree, and those working for exchanges will say I'm insane - of course.
The fact the cryptos dropped by over 50% since December 2017 has scared many people away, that's for sure. If you bought a BitCoin at 18k and it's worth 6.5k now you'll probably just try to sit it out and hope for the best. Bit it might go up again in a few weeks / months time. Who knows... There's a lot of bots doing trade, and there's also a lot of rumor altcoins are used to back up the value of bitcoin. If that's true the Bitcoin might be in for an ever worse ride. Interesting times though.

Some (not all, and not Bubble T) investors appear more like nerd cultists than financial investors, and get screechy when their new idol is questioned in any way. I do understand cryptocurrency and as an ex-hacker I especially understand the appeal, and I'm confident that our future will include some form of digital currency. However, if the stock market slid to the degree that cryptos did, people would be jumping out of windows. I still see (for now, anyway) a difference in earned wealth as opposed to mined wealth - in the latter, easy come, easy go. The next six months is going to be very telling. If the system can clean up the weakness skimmed over in the second article, who knows what will happen.

I do know the Sheldon really screwed Leonard, Rajesh and Howard when he lost the Batman USB key, though.

StroppyChops wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:40 pmAlso interesting that there has been little to no response on my original point that the "value" of almost all cryptocurrencies dropped by around 50% in a very small time margin, and it would be horrible to have bought into those falling cryptocurrencies just prior to the bubble bursting.

Okies, I'll have a stab at it. I see two main statements/claims being made in the bit I quoted. The first is indisputable, that the crypto market in general is still very volatile. I feel like you're implying that volatility is bad or unhealthy in the relatively early stages of a new commodity being traded. I think it's healthy, and the fact that most commodities go through a similar thing when they are first introduced to market is important to remember.

The second claim you make is that there has already been a bubble, and that it has burst (as opposed to this just being another run of the mill burst of volatility). First it needs to be pointed out that things have stabilized over the past few days, and the current price of bitcoin is up 158% on year to date (at current time of writing). To be up 158% in one year, and AFTER "the bubble bursting" (as you put it) just goes to show what massive expectations even the naysayers place on crypto. How could anyone call 158% a bad return? Upset because it's not the 400%+ you were hoping for? Jfc.

Finally I'd also like to point out that crypto trading volumes are at an all time high. No one is backing out anytime soon.

People talk a lot of shit about being sure it's worthless and that it'll crash hard, but none of those people (at least the ones I've spoken to) are willing to put their money where their mouths are and short it. That should tell you a lot.

Kammekor wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 4:52 pmIn my OP I mentioned a study from last month, so using the words 'several years behind' is a bit strange.

The study wasn't related to the bit I said you were behind on.

The fact you use a bitpay VISA card doesn't make it a currency, it just proves the crypto has value. It means you exchange bitcoin into a currency like a USD, and use that for payments, not that you're paying with bitcoin.

Putting bitcoin into an account and then walking around with a Visa card paying for things from the same account makes it a currency just like any other. The business end of exchanging currencies for different merchants in different countries is irrelevant to me as a consumer. I put bitcoin in, I get whatever I want out. Ez. You probably do the same thing with dollars every time you buy something online.

I don't know what your standard definition of currency is, but it's different from mine

Get a dictionary, don't invent your own definitions of words if you want to have a serious discussion about anything. The word currency doesn't even relate specifically to money or financial transactions.

The day the bitcoin or other cryptos will be widely accepted for payments it becomes a currency, but that might take some more time.

I spent the last 3 days walking around Aeon 2 buying everything from air conditioners to socks. It all went on a Visa card, which I've only ever put bitcoin into. My bitcoins were able to get me everything I needed for my new house.

Personally I believe all current cryptos will go to zero in the long run

If you actually believe that then I assume you've put a substantial amount of your savings into shorting them? If not, why not?

John Bingham wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:25 pm

Bubble T wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:15 pm People talk a lot of shit about being sure it's worthless and that it'll crash hard, but none of those people (at least the ones I've spoken to) are willing to put their money where their mouths are and short it. That should tell you a lot.

Interesting but what does "short it" mean? I know jack shit about financial stuff but I'm wondering why someone would buy into anything if they didn't believe it would hold/ gain value. Maybe ELI5...

In trading terms, shorting something is a means of betting that it will go down rather than up. Anyone shorting bitcoin to crash to zero would be able to make a huge amount of money if they were right about it. Bill Gates said he'd do it if he could, but backed out of actually doing it when it became possible.

Also just to be extra clear; I'm not a trader, I'm not a financial expert, and my job doesn't involve making money directly from fluctuations in crypto prices. I'm just telling it how I see it.

Edit, there's a good explanation of what shorting is here. In the context of bitcoin, it's achievable through futures contracts.

Bubble T wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 8:15 pm

StroppyChops wrote: ↑Tue Jun 19, 2018 3:40 pmAlso interesting that there has been little to no response on my original point that the "value" of almost all cryptocurrencies dropped by around 50% in a very small time margin, and it would be horrible to have bought into those falling cryptocurrencies just prior to the bubble bursting.

Okies, I'll have a stab at it. I see two main statements/claims being made in the bit I quoted. The first is indisputable, that the crypto market in general is still very volatile. I feel like you're implying that volatility is bad or unhealthy in the relatively early stages of a new commodity being traded. I think it's healthy, and the fact that most commodities go through a similar thing when they are first introduced to market is important to remember.

Not at all. I bought in big when the mining sector bottomed out around a decade ago, and then sold the day before it peaked - so volatility is definitely not a bad thing. That's clearly not what I was saying, though, as I was clearly saying it would suck to have bought into crypto just before it tanked. Don't read more into my statement than that. For anything of value, to buy in at 100 units, and have that value halved within days, would suck. Period.

The second claim you make is that there has already been a bubble, and that it has burst (as opposed to this just being another run of the mill burst of volatility). First it needs to be pointed out that things have stabilized over the past few days, and the current price of bitcoin is up 158% on year to date (at current time of writing). To be up 158% in one year, and AFTER "the bubble bursting" (as you put it) just goes to show what massive expectations even the naysayers place on crypto. How could anyone call 158% a bad return? Upset because it's not the 400%+ you were hoping for? Jfc.

For me (and many others) to say there was a bubble, and it burst, has no bearing on whether the specific currency or commodity has rebounded. Statistically there was a growth bubble, and statistically it burst, dramatically. It's rebounded and shown an annual return? Great. Does that change the degree of volatility? Not one bit.

Finally I'd also like to point out that crypto trading volumes are at an all time high. No one is backing out anytime soon.

People talk a lot of shit about being sure it's worthless and that it'll crash hard, but none of those people (at least the ones I've spoken to) are willing to put their money where their mouths are and short it. That should tell you a lot.

It clearly doesn't tell me what it tells you. You're suggesting that naysayers should short it to demonstrate they're right? As in, invest and then get out, just to prove some abstract point? Why would you do that, if you're not already in?