Chinese investments

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:05 pm

Nixon wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 12:36 pm
armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Tue Jun 11, 2019 11:52 am This is an interesting watch,
https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/10 ... 05227.html
A very interesting video. It makes the Chinese investments in Cambodia even more questionable..

It seems that moving money out of China (at least by bank payments) started to become very difficult around 2016/17. That caused the housing markets in Vancouver and Sydney to decline. China was still stimulating (in order to prop up GDP) so that money stayed in China, driving up property prices there. Some of it reached Cambodia where there has been a lot (by Cambodian standards) of corporate investment in projects and individual investment in units.
China now has a current account deficit so they are short of USD. This impacts corporate borrowers the most as they are big USD borrowers. This prevents more stimulus because that would crash the CNY (already down 7.55% in one year). That would be problematic for Chinese companies that have income in CNY but debt servicing costs in USD. Trade wars are not helping as exports fall. China is waiting desperately for the Fed to cut rates so that they can do more stimulus without impacting the CNY. That will probably happen in September. Meanwhile things are getting interesting, the first bank failure in 20 years recently occurred. Ironically Trump is calling for the Fed to cut when the strong USD is actually helping him win the trade war.
A gaming analyst said that VIP junkets to Macau have declined as the casinos are no longer willing to extend credit to the big companies (due to risks caused by the USD shortage and trade wars impacting export business). However, standard gaming business from the mainland is holding up well.
I hear that Tom Miller's China's Asian Dream is a good book.

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:25 pm

In its 2018 Annual Stability Review, the National Bank of Cambodia expressed concerns over the rates of real estate growth in Cambodia and the likelihood of a fall in prices. It was also concerned about the effect of a retrenchment of activity by China on the whole economy and especially on the real estate sector. 41% of Cambodia's FDI comes from China.
https://www.nbc.org.kh/download_files/p ... pr2019.pdf

whatwat · Post by **whatwat** » Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm

Not sure where you get the notion China has a lack of USD.
It’s Forex reserves are the biggest in the world by some margin (USA has $126 billion!) at $3 trillion. Most of that is USD.

The reason why Sydney’s housing market dropped is because foreigners were banned from buying existing property and can only buy new.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:08 pm

whatwat wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm Not sure where you get the notion China has a lack of USD.
It’s Forex reserves are the biggest in the world by some margin (USA has $126 billion!) at $3 trillion. Most of that is USD.

The reason why Sydney’s housing market dropped is because foreigners were banned from buying existing property and can only buy new.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was referring to China the country as a whole. It is short of USD. The state's FX reserves are, as you say, at $3tn. and obviously very strong, although they have declined recently.

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:13 pm

armchairlawyer wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 3:08 pm
whatwat wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm Not sure where you get the notion China has a lack of USD.
It’s Forex reserves are the biggest in the world by some margin (USA has $126 billion!) at $3 trillion. Most of that is USD.

The reason why Sydney’s housing market dropped is because foreigners were banned from buying existing property and can only buy new.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I was referring to China the country as a whole. It is short of USD due to their current account deficit. The state's FX reserves are, as you say, at $3tn. and obviously very strong, although they have declined recently.
Hopefully this link will work.
https://app.hedgeye.com/insights/75958- ... type=macro

whatwat · Post by **whatwat** » Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:59 pm

armchairlawyer wrote:
whatwat wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm Not sure where you get the notion China has a lack of USD.
It’s Forex reserves are the biggest in the world by some margin (USA has $126 billion!) at $3 trillion. Most of that is USD.

The reason why Sydney’s housing market dropped is because foreigners were banned from buying existing property and can only buy new.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I was referring to China the country as a whole. It is short of USD. The state's FX reserves are, as you say, at $3tn. and obviously very strong, although they have declined recently.

What other China is there?

Their Forex reserves have actually increased.
You do know what forex reserves are?
They are not short of USD whatsoever.

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armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Sun Jun 16, 2019 7:05 pm

whatwat wrote: ↑Sun Jun 16, 2019 5:59 pm
What other China is there?

Their Forex reserves have actually increased.
You do know what forex reserves are?
They are not short of USD whatsoever.

If you watch the Hedgeye video you can see why China is short dollars.

phuketrichard · Post by **phuketrichard** » Sun Jun 16, 2019 8:44 pm

whatwat wrote: ↑Sat Jun 15, 2019 1:35 pm Not sure where you get the notion China has a lack of USD.
It’s Forex reserves are the biggest in the world by some margin (USA has $126 billion!) at $3 trillion. Most of that is USD.

The reason why Sydney’s housing market dropped is because foreigners were banned from buying existing property and can only buy new.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

America Loves it when other countries hold their PAPER money,, they cant run out as they just print more for the suckers to hold.
sorta like when they used to tell you when you return home after ur trip, just put ur American express checks in the drawer till ur next trip..

Flexxman · Post by **Flexxman** » Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:20 pm

South China Morning Post published today the last in a series of three articles which give more insight regarding some of the discussion above:

Part 1: Does China have enough US dollars to survive the US trade war?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... -escalates

Part 2: Why is US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... -war-rages

Part 3: Is China’s concern over a possible US dollar shortage risk forcing companies to sell overseas assets?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... sk-forcing

armchairlawyer · Post by **armchairlawyer** » Tue Jun 25, 2019 11:59 am

Flexxman wrote: ↑Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:20 pm South China Morning Post published today the last in a series of three articles which give more insight regarding some of the discussion above:

Part 1: Does China have enough US dollars to survive the US trade war?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... -escalates

Part 2: Why is US dollar access so restrained in China as trade war rages on?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... -war-rages

Part 3: Is China’s concern over a possible US dollar shortage risk forcing companies to sell overseas assets?
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-econ ... sk-forcing

And now this one describes how FX leaks out of China,
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Dataw ... disappears

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