ASEAN lockdown

Khmu Nation · Post by **Khmu Nation** » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:07 pm

You might be right. Maybe the days of accessible and affordable international travel really are over.

sigmoid · Post by **sigmoid** » Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:43 pm

Vietnam has never been very popular with western tourists. Most international tourists are Asians (Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Thai).

Bui Vien is now full of young locals drinking in noisy bars or sitting on plastic chairs in the gutters.

Have a look at the video in this article::

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/video/nigh ... 59244.html

Woody · Post by **Woody** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:48 am

sigmoid wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:43 pm Vietnam has never been very popular with western tourists. Most international tourists are Asians (Chinese, Korean, Japanese and Thai).

Bui Vien is now full of young locals drinking in noisy bars or sitting on plastic chairs in the gutters.

Have a look at the video in this article::

https://e.vnexpress.net/news/video/nigh ... 59244.html

I lived in Vietnam for five years and it was always a popular destination for western tourists. The problem is that not many return compared to say Thailand. Of course Bui Vien is full of locals because there are no foreign tourists. As the bar owner who was interviewed said they are just waiting for the restrictions to be lifted so life can get back to normal.

sigmoid · Post by **sigmoid** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:12 am

Woody wrote: ↑Mon Sep 28, 2020 6:48 am
I lived in Vietnam for five years and it was always a popular destination for western tourists. The problem is that not many return compared to say Thailand. Of course Bui Vien is full of locals because there are no foreign tourists. As the bar owner who was interviewed said they are just waiting for the restrictions to be lifted so life can get back to normal.

According to this:
Numbers hit record high as foreign tourists flock to Vietnam
https://e.vnexpress.net/news/travel/pla ... 34336.html

there were only 2.1 million European tourists last year (11.6%). North America and Aus/NZ are not even mentioned. Also, as you say, the return rate is very low. Thus, the logical conclusion is that VN is ok, maybe 'popular' with western tourists, but not 'very' popular.

Regarding Bui Vien/De Tham Street (PNL), if you haven't been there in a few years, you'll be surprised when you do. Although there are still some restaurants and accommodation in the alleys, the two main roads are now mostly very noisy techno clubs as seen in the video or the plastic chairs as seen in this photo from last year with about 95% locals literally sitting in the road. That's why it's a "Walking Street" on weekends now as cars and motorbikes just can't get through the crowds.

Anyway, hopefully you'll have a chance to see the changes with your own eyes soon.

Kammekor · Post by **Kammekor** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 11:24 am

Khmu Nation wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:07 pm You might be right. Maybe the days of accessible and affordable international travel really are over.

In a few years time the novel virus will be part of our life just like all the other viruses we know and people will see business opportunities. All will be forgotten, and even if it's not forgotten people will assume it'll take another 100 years until the next pandemic.

Khmu Nation · Post by **Khmu Nation** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 12:25 pm

Vietnam is an interesting country demographically. I don't know the exact figures but a very large percentage of the population are under the age of 40. Along with its economic boom the country its culture is changing so rapidly and profoundly it becomes unrecognizable to itself every decade or so.

atkins, k · Post by **atkins, k** » Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:13 pm

phuketrichard wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 8:39 am if all goes well, ( no increase in infections) with the limited number of Tourists soon to be, Maybe admitted to Thailand next month

POSSIBLE, Maybe the new year......
once Thailand feels it safe to open, Laos, Cambodia, Malaysia will follow

My barometer is this. When the West develops a rapid test that is 100% accurate and you get the results in less than 30 minutes. Then implements said test on arriving tourists, then SEA will follow suit. No one in charge of any SEA country is going to put their neck out there. At least this way if theres another wave they can say "We are just following the example set by the West, dont blame us." Its a shitty scenario, and I dont think SEA is going to open up like we knew it for years, but lets face it. They are not going to lead on this issue, and more likely will be bringing up the rear of reopening very very slowly.

CEOCambodiaNews · Post by **CEOCambodiaNews** » Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:38 pm

How Did Vietnam and Cambodia Contain COVID-19 With Few Resources?
Today
Manisha Mirchandani Director of Strategy at Atlantic 57

As the coronavirus has ravaged its way across the world, some countries in Asia have shown a remarkable ability to evade its worst effects. As of early August, Cambodia had zero deaths and Vietnam had just six recorded deaths from the coronavirus. This is in spite of these countries having far fewer resources to respond to the threat, compared to wealthy nations such as the United States and Italy, where the virus has exacted a terrible price.

Not all of Southeast Asia has been as successful in containing the virus’ spread: Both Indonesia and the Philippines register amongst the highest deaths in Asia outside of China. So why have Cambodia and Vietnam been so successful? Vietnam has recorded only 500 cases for a population of nearly 100 million (five per million) as of the end of July, while Cambodia has recorded just 15 cases per million at this point.

A Younger Population?

Experts have pointed to a younger demographic in these countries as being a possible inoculating factor, but the virus has not spared the youthful populations of Indonesia and the Philippines. Others say that low testing rates and possible underreporting of cases is hiding the true extent of COVID-19 in these countries. But to date, there has been no risk of health systems in Vietnam or Cambodia becoming overwhelmed by the severity of outbreaks, as we have seen in other countries.

The early success of these countries in responding to the coronavirus shows that an effective response is not dependent on resource availability.
Full article: https://www.brinknews.com/how-did-vietn ... resources/

monomial · Post by **monomial** » Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:27 am

CEOCambodiaNews wrote: ↑Wed Oct 07, 2020 3:38 pm How Did Vietnam and Cambodia Contain COVID-19 With Few Resources?
Today
Manisha Mirchandani Director of Strategy at Atlantic 57

As the coronavirus has ravaged its way across the world, some countries in Asia have shown a remarkable ability to evade its worst effects. As of early August, Cambodia had zero deaths and Vietnam had just six recorded deaths from the coronavirus. This is in spite of these countries having far fewer resources to respond to the threat, compared to wealthy nations such as the United States and Italy, where the virus has exacted a terrible price.

Not all of Southeast Asia has been as successful in containing the virus’ spread: Both Indonesia and the Philippines register amongst the highest deaths in Asia outside of China. So why have Cambodia and Vietnam been so successful? Vietnam has recorded only 500 cases for a population of nearly 100 million (five per million) as of the end of July, while Cambodia has recorded just 15 cases per million at this point.

A Younger Population?

Experts have pointed to a younger demographic in these countries as being a possible inoculating factor, but the virus has not spared the youthful populations of Indonesia and the Philippines. Others say that low testing rates and possible underreporting of cases is hiding the true extent of COVID-19 in these countries. But to date, there has been no risk of health systems in Vietnam or Cambodia becoming overwhelmed by the severity of outbreaks, as we have seen in other countries.

The early success of these countries in responding to the coronavirus shows that an effective response is not dependent on resource availability.
Full article: https://www.brinknews.com/how-did-vietn ... resources/

Given that I am 99% certain I contracted Covid-19 in late September/early October (well before the first case was identified outside of China in Thailand in December), and that there is a tremendous amount of anecdotal evidence that would seem to support others having the same experience as me, and the fact that epidemiological studies have pinpointed the emergence of the disease as originating in Wuhan sometime between September and December, I find it particularly interesting that no genuine media organization will address the elephant in the room. Herd immunity.

I want to see a genuine, scientific study addressing the hypothesis that the reason SE Asia did so well is because a sizeable percentage of their population was already immune by the time the disease was finally identified. I'm not saying this is definitely the case, but nobody has thrown significant money towards a study that would seriously investigate this hypothesis. It is almost as if someone doesn't want to know the answer....

Teddy1 · Post by **Teddy1** » Thu Oct 08, 2020 6:47 am

lagrange wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 10:35 am
samrong01 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 27, 2020 7:06 am To my knowledge no ASEAN government has even announced a plan to return to normal. It seems they are perfectly happy with the elimination of the tourism industry.

Countries open to normal tourism or with plans to open can be found here: https://www.traveloffpath.com/countries ... lete-list/. This website is pretty up-to-date. The Caribbean is a great place for a holiday and is mostly open. Getting there may be a problem.
While I dont think any country is happy about the end of tourism, there are signs that they are beginning to understand that relying on tourists for a large percentage of GDP is always going to be a risk from this point on, and that the economies have to readjust to allow for that. The hotel, restaurant and hospitality sectors in general will contract, bankruptcies will increase, unemployment will rise. Governments will rework their budgets in line with their income. Eventually people will be retrained and redeployed, investors will look at other profitable sectors of the economy. Market forces will always win out in the end, and the days of the bargain basement tourist are over, like in the 50's and 60's, travel will be the preserve of the well-off. Well that's what my crystal ball says and I'm sticking to it.

Gosh this is a realistic prediction.
BBC said it could take 5 years to return to normal. I lament at this. Id prefer
a future of Flowers and unicorns. (that's for the dreamer and girl in me)

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