2021 - Much worse than 2020?
2021 - Much worse than 2020?
Back in March some of the early predictions of 'how long until things get back to normal' started off positive and then more long term negative predictions start to creep in. August/Sept, the initial favourite, has long passed, Christmas/early 2021 was touted too, but that is going to pass by. Mid 2021 seems to be the new, more cautious view.
It seems to me that even this cautious view are wildly optimistic. Europe is in it's so called 'second wave'; some predict it will be worse than the first. North and South America are drenched in the virus and it is no longer simply a pandemic, that is old news - Covid-19 in now endemic in all of Europe, North, Central and South America. India and parts of the Middle East have the same status.
This year, governments throughout the wealthiest parts of these regions, have spent colossal sums of money on keeping their people economically afloat while they crushed their economies through lockdowns. Europe is doing it all again, right now.
This cannot go on. Governments can only borrow and print so much before they lose credibility. Business' can withstand so much, and thereafter will fail. Governments and the economy has used up much of it's capacity to withstand the shock - borrowing, capital depletion, layoffs and reducing costs must be close to exhaustion. Just how much more it can withstand before widespread sector collapse is unknown, but we are going to find out. We are 'all-in' on this gamble.
This year the bomb went off, and it is still going off - see below. Next year the real fallout will arrive and it could make this year look good.
Second wave? The first one hasn't finished yet.
It seems to me that even this cautious view are wildly optimistic. Europe is in it's so called 'second wave'; some predict it will be worse than the first. North and South America are drenched in the virus and it is no longer simply a pandemic, that is old news - Covid-19 in now endemic in all of Europe, North, Central and South America. India and parts of the Middle East have the same status.
This year, governments throughout the wealthiest parts of these regions, have spent colossal sums of money on keeping their people economically afloat while they crushed their economies through lockdowns. Europe is doing it all again, right now.
This cannot go on. Governments can only borrow and print so much before they lose credibility. Business' can withstand so much, and thereafter will fail. Governments and the economy has used up much of it's capacity to withstand the shock - borrowing, capital depletion, layoffs and reducing costs must be close to exhaustion. Just how much more it can withstand before widespread sector collapse is unknown, but we are going to find out. We are 'all-in' on this gamble.
This year the bomb went off, and it is still going off - see below. Next year the real fallout will arrive and it could make this year look good.
Second wave? The first one hasn't finished yet.
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
Now Doc, compare that to the next tab 'Daily Deaths'.
It's not great, but deaths are not keeping up with daily cases. Herd immunity kicking in?
It's not great, but deaths are not keeping up with daily cases. Herd immunity kicking in?
Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
I can't say this makes me feel any better. As for herd immunity, the numbers of people showing antibodies has dropped in the UK, and it is still a very small percentage.Username Taken wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:14 am Now Doc, compare that to the next tab 'Daily Deaths'.
It's not great, but deaths are not keeping up with daily cases. Herd immunity kicking in?
Covid: Antibodies 'fall rapidly after infection'
The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873
- Bitte_Kein_Lexus
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
It'll be with us most likely forever, just like the flu. Get used to it.
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
I don't know if it will be "worse", but I would expect a large amount of systemic change to take place. Especially in the USA.
I would agree that it won't be a "great" year overall. From what I've read its likely the first vaccines will only provide temporary protection (similar to a flu shot) and given the segment of the population opposed to a vaccine - it makes it likely we'll see less economic activity throughout the year.
I expect Social Security in the US to be in dire straits as tax collections fall. Higher payroll taxes should be expected in a new Democratic controlled congress. Higher personal income taxes. Larger tax credits for children and perhaps direct payments for those earning under 20K. Tons of "feel good" legislation "protecting" every population segment with a hyphenated name. Trumps tax returns made public which will show he gamed the system same as all the other rich folks. Obamacare gets expanded - but similar to Obamacare it just becomes benefits for some with no one paying for them except those that actually pay their own premiums (those folks may simply be unable to continue as family premiums already approaching $2500-$3000 a month.) More people will move to the middle of "nowhere" simply to be allowed to live their lives as they see fit. Unemployment benefits may be nationalized. Will things be better under the Democrats? I doubt it but at least we won't have to listen to Trump spew nonsense every day.
As for the pandemic, it will continue until at least 3rd quarter - and that is IF there is a single shot vaccine that a majority of the population will take. Otherwise I expect it will just be a mess throughout the year. I guess the one good thing is that I read a few days ago we've become much better at treating infections and the mortality rate is way down from earlier in the year.
Internationally, I expect limited travel with tons of restrictions to remain in place through the year. Covid 19 negative tests mandatory when travelling internationally. Airfares will rise. Airlines will declare BK. Boeing/Airbus see reduced demand for several years. And lots and lots of travel related businesses in tourist spots continue to go under.
So yeah, a pretty blah expectation of the new year in a macro sense.
I would agree that it won't be a "great" year overall. From what I've read its likely the first vaccines will only provide temporary protection (similar to a flu shot) and given the segment of the population opposed to a vaccine - it makes it likely we'll see less economic activity throughout the year.
I expect Social Security in the US to be in dire straits as tax collections fall. Higher payroll taxes should be expected in a new Democratic controlled congress. Higher personal income taxes. Larger tax credits for children and perhaps direct payments for those earning under 20K. Tons of "feel good" legislation "protecting" every population segment with a hyphenated name. Trumps tax returns made public which will show he gamed the system same as all the other rich folks. Obamacare gets expanded - but similar to Obamacare it just becomes benefits for some with no one paying for them except those that actually pay their own premiums (those folks may simply be unable to continue as family premiums already approaching $2500-$3000 a month.) More people will move to the middle of "nowhere" simply to be allowed to live their lives as they see fit. Unemployment benefits may be nationalized. Will things be better under the Democrats? I doubt it but at least we won't have to listen to Trump spew nonsense every day.
As for the pandemic, it will continue until at least 3rd quarter - and that is IF there is a single shot vaccine that a majority of the population will take. Otherwise I expect it will just be a mess throughout the year. I guess the one good thing is that I read a few days ago we've become much better at treating infections and the mortality rate is way down from earlier in the year.
Internationally, I expect limited travel with tons of restrictions to remain in place through the year. Covid 19 negative tests mandatory when travelling internationally. Airfares will rise. Airlines will declare BK. Boeing/Airbus see reduced demand for several years. And lots and lots of travel related businesses in tourist spots continue to go under.
So yeah, a pretty blah expectation of the new year in a macro sense.
Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
Unless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.
You must walk in traffic to cross the road - Cambodian proverb
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
I was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France where I read they had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pmUnless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.
Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
But can the global economy withstand a global shutdown? Many economies have played all the cards they have and now they are hoping for a miracle.Kung-fu Hillbilly wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:42 pmI was talking to a fellow traveler today we both confused why half measures and token gestures are being put in place when the only real remedy is to shut it all down - do it once and do it properly. I'm not sure whether it was Spain or France I read had a restriction that prevented people moving around between 11pm and 5am, because that's the most effective time slot to prevent people movement, isn't it?timmydownawell wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 1:32 pmUnless every country goes full lockdown for a month or more (unlikely), you're probably right. I don't fancy living the rest of my life at risk of this serious virus, so it would be nice if the countries not currently taking it seriously would do the obvious.Alex wrote: ↑Thu Oct 29, 2020 11:26 am People will eventually get bored and most of those who are susceptible to dying from Covid will have died from it, meanwhile treatment gets more effective and some of the vaccines will probably have at least some effect, too. So the "it's just a flu" faction will eventually be right, given some time. All that considered, early next year still looks bleak but things should get better let's say from summer on. Just my guess obviously.
In countries with decent healthcare systems, they should have kept open all the new pop up facilities that were created. Or start creating them very quickly. All Covid-19 patients should be treated there, as best they can. Oxygen treatment, whatever potions of drugs that have been concocted over the last months, and as many ventilators as they can muster. The main hospitals should be kept Covid-19 free as far as possible or many more very preventable deaths will occur due to people being unable to receive treatment for everyday conditions. Currently, in many countries, a hospital is a very dangerous place to be.
And the economies must keep going to pay for it all. Full lockdowns did not work and never will.
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Re: 2021 - Much worse than 2020?
Back into confinement starting friday, at least until 1st december.
People are rushing to the supermarkets again, with an extra detour to the toys shops.
Jingle bells ho ho ho
People are rushing to the supermarkets again, with an extra detour to the toys shops.
Jingle bells ho ho ho
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