Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

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Joker Poker
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by Joker Poker »

vladimir wrote:Excuse my trading ignorance, but if I had money, I'd buy precious minerals. Only so much around, always in demand, and demand has to increase. Kind of no-brainer. Buy. Sit. Cash in.

Are you talking rare earths?

Lynas Corp, ticker code - LYC, on the ASX is a great example of what can go wrong when you build your rare earths' complex in Malaysia.

Okay, can't read the text in the image too small, in the green circled area a lot of people bought this up - what could possibly go wrong? A fair bit acually...

Weekly chart:
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by OrangeDragon »

Yeah the risk with a minerals is that a cheap and easy substitute may be found for it and you're holding a bunch of nothing.

I imagine the US switch over to PVC plumbing hurt the copper prices, and was mostly caused BY the copper prices. Prior to the sudden trend in stealing pipes 99.9% of homes in America were built using copper plumbing for the water lines. Now it's much much lower. Sometimes a resource can push itself out of business.
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by Joker Poker »

S&P500 is in an ominous spot right now. It may keep going up for a while, but the odds would have to favour a pull-back at some point. The circled area is where it would likely run out of gas later in the year if indeed it does continue upward.

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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by OrangeDragon »

yeah, that's yucky. the question is how big will the pop be when it hits the mark..?
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by Joker Poker »

Probabilities would suggest at least to the median of the long-term fork and quite likely lower.

It's not a pretty picture, but it ain't over till it's over, so probably some opportunities yet.

Gold getting spanked for the second day in a row.
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by OrangeDragon »

Even when it's about to collapse some nice opportunities for shorting.
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vladimir
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by vladimir »

I was talking about silver, gold and platinum, jewellery metals, and diamonds.
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Joker Poker
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by Joker Poker »

Right. I understand your thinking. It comes down to buying at the right points of the cycles and that almost always requires contrarian thinking. If you listen to the 'experts' they would have had you buying gold back in the last half of 2011 and 2012 and you'd be very sorry.

The key to understanding what goes on is that the markets are all rigged, once you get in tune with that, you can start to see what is really going on.
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by OrangeDragon »

And i wouldn't even say "rigged" in the traditional sense of some grand cabal of conspirators so much as rigged by automatic trading software algorithms that, once you discern their patterns, you can trade along.
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Re: Copper Futures Breaking out of Long Down Trend

Post by Joker Poker »

Yes, that is just one of their many devious devices.

But rigged they are. Loads of documented incidences on the record, and very easy to follow once you understand the patterns of accumulation and distribution.

This Wyckoff'' logic is excellent and a pattern that you'll see repeatedly:


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